TY - JOUR
T1 - Uncertainty and risk analyses for FEMA alluvial-fan method
AU - Zhao, Bing
AU - Mays, Larry
PY - 1996/6
Y1 - 1996/6
N2 - Alluvial fans along mountain bases pose quite interesting problems for the design of hydraulic structures and highway crossings and for flood insurance studies. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) alluvial-fan method is subject to uncertainties because it is an approximate method. In this paper, Rosenblueth's point-estimate is applied to the FEMA alluvial fan method to compute the mean and standard deviation for the 100-yr discharge at any point on the fan and the mean and standard deviation for the fan arc width. The mean and standard deviation for the 100-yr discharge are used to obtain the risk that the 100-yr discharge will exceed the discharge capacity of hydraulic structures on the fan. The mean and standard deviation for the fan arc width are used to estimate the risk that a given location on the fan is within the hazard flood zone. The HEC-1 rainfall-runoff computer model is used to compute inputs to the FEMA method. The proposed uncertainty and risk analyses are applied to an alluvial fan in north Scottsdale, Ariz.
AB - Alluvial fans along mountain bases pose quite interesting problems for the design of hydraulic structures and highway crossings and for flood insurance studies. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) alluvial-fan method is subject to uncertainties because it is an approximate method. In this paper, Rosenblueth's point-estimate is applied to the FEMA alluvial fan method to compute the mean and standard deviation for the 100-yr discharge at any point on the fan and the mean and standard deviation for the fan arc width. The mean and standard deviation for the 100-yr discharge are used to obtain the risk that the 100-yr discharge will exceed the discharge capacity of hydraulic structures on the fan. The mean and standard deviation for the fan arc width are used to estimate the risk that a given location on the fan is within the hazard flood zone. The HEC-1 rainfall-runoff computer model is used to compute inputs to the FEMA method. The proposed uncertainty and risk analyses are applied to an alluvial fan in north Scottsdale, Ariz.
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U2 - 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1996)122:6(325)
DO - 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1996)122:6(325)
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:0030154209
VL - 122
SP - 325
EP - 332
JO - American Society of Civil Engineers, Journal of the Hydraulics Division
JF - American Society of Civil Engineers, Journal of the Hydraulics Division
SN - 0733-9429
IS - 6
ER -