The roles of dispersal, fecundity, and predation in the population persistence of an oak (Quercus engelmannii) under global change

Erin Conlisk, Dawn Lawson, Alexandra D. Syphard, Janet Franklin, Lorraine Flint, Alan Flint, Helen M. Regan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

23 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A species' response to climate change depends on the interaction of biotic and abiotic factors that define future habitat suitability and species' ability to migrate or adapt. The interactive effects of processes such as fire, dispersal, and predation have not been thoroughly addressed in the climate change literature. Our objective was to examine how life history traits, short-term global change perturbations, and long-term climate change interact to affect the likely persistence of an oak species - Quercus engelmannii (Engelmann oak). Specifically, we combined dynamic species distribution models, which predict suitable habitat, with stochastic, stage-based metapopulation models, which project population trajectories, to evaluate the effects of three global change factors - climate change, land use change, and altered fire frequency - emphasizing the roles of dispersal and seed predation. Our model predicted dramatic reduction in Q. engelmannii abundance, especially under drier climates and increased fire frequency. When masting lowers seed predation rates, decreased masting frequency leads to large abundance decreases. Current rates of dispersal are not likely to prevent these effects, although increased dispersal could mitigate population declines. The results suggest that habitat suitability predictions by themselves may under-estimate the impact of climate change for other species and locations.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere36391
JournalPLoS One
Volume7
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - May 18 2012

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Quercus
Climate Change
global change
Climate change
Fertility
fecundity
climate change
predation
Ecosystem
Fires
seed predation
Population
Seed
habitats
Seed Dispersal
Climate
Land use
land use change
trajectories
Seeds

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

The roles of dispersal, fecundity, and predation in the population persistence of an oak (Quercus engelmannii) under global change. / Conlisk, Erin; Lawson, Dawn; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Franklin, Janet; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; Regan, Helen M.

In: PLoS One, Vol. 7, No. 5, e36391, 18.05.2012.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Conlisk, Erin ; Lawson, Dawn ; Syphard, Alexandra D. ; Franklin, Janet ; Flint, Lorraine ; Flint, Alan ; Regan, Helen M. / The roles of dispersal, fecundity, and predation in the population persistence of an oak (Quercus engelmannii) under global change. In: PLoS One. 2012 ; Vol. 7, No. 5.
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