The basic reproduction number ℛ0 and effectiveness of reactive interventions during dengue epidemics

The 2002 dengue outbreak in easter Island, Chile

G. Chowell, R. Fuentes, A. Olea, X. Aguilera, H. Nesse, J. M. Hyman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

20 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We use a stochastic simulation model to explore the effect of reactive intervention strategies during the 2002 dengue outbreak in the small population of Easter Island, Chile. We quantified the effect of interventions on the transmission dynamics and epidemic size as a function of the simulated control intensity levels and the timing of initiation of control interventions. Because no dengue outbreaks had been reported prior to 2002 in Easter Island, the 2002 epidemic provided a unique opportunity to estimate the basic reproduction number ℛ0 during the initial epidemic phase, prior to the start of control interventions. We estimated ℛ0 at 27:2 (95%CI: 14:8, 49:3). We found that the final epidemic size is highly sensitive to the timing of start of interventions. However, even when the control interventions start several weeks after the epidemic onset, reactive intervention efforts can have a significant impact on the final epidemic size. Our results indicate that the rapid implementation of control interventions can have a significant effect in reducing the epidemic size of dengue epidemics.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1455-1474
Number of pages20
JournalMathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Volume10
Issue number5-6
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 2013

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Basic Reproduction Number
Polynesia
Basic Reproduction number
dengue
Dengue
Chile
Pacific Ocean Islands
Disease Outbreaks
Timing
basic reproduction number
Stochastic Simulation
Stochastic Model
simulation models
Simulation Model

Keywords

  • 2002 outbreak
  • Chile
  • Dengue
  • Dengue hemorrhagic fever
  • Easter Island
  • Epidemic
  • Mathematical model
  • Reproduction number

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Applied Mathematics
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Computational Mathematics
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

The basic reproduction number ℛ0 and effectiveness of reactive interventions during dengue epidemics : The 2002 dengue outbreak in easter Island, Chile. / Chowell, G.; Fuentes, R.; Olea, A.; Aguilera, X.; Nesse, H.; Hyman, J. M.

In: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, Vol. 10, No. 5-6, 10.2013, p. 1455-1474.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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