Spatial and temporal dynamics of rubella in Peru, 1997-2006: Geographic patterns, age at infection and estimation of transmissibility

Daniel Rios-Doria, Gerardo Chowell, Cesar Munayco-Escate, Alvaro Witthembury, Carlos Castillo-Chavez

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

    4 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Detailed studies on the spatial and temporal patterns of rubella transmission are scarce particularly in developing countries but could prove useful in improving epidemiological surveillance and intervention strategies such as vaccination. We use highly refined spatial, temporal and age-specific incidence data of Peru, a geographically diverse country, to quantify spatial-temporal patterns of incidence and transmissibility for rubella during the period 1997-2006. We estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0) based on the mean age at infection and the per capita birth rate of the population as well as the reproduction number (accounting for the fraction of the population effectively protected to infection) using the initial intrinsic growth rate of individual outbreaks and estimates of epidemiological parameters for rubella. A wavelet time series analysis is conducted to explore the periodicity of the rubella weekly time series, and the results of our analyses are compared to those carried out for time series of other childhood infectious diseases. We also identify the presence of a critical community size and quantify spatial heterogeneity across geographic regions through the use of Lorenz curves and their corresponding Gini indices. The underlying distributions of rubella outbreak attack rates and epidemic durations across Peru are characterized.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Title of host publicationMathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology
    PublisherSpringer Netherlands
    Pages325-341
    Number of pages17
    ISBN (Print)9789048123124
    DOIs
    StatePublished - 2009

    Fingerprint

    Infection
    Incidence
    Quantify
    Time series
    Gini Index
    Lorenz Curve
    Reproduction number
    Spatial Heterogeneity
    Basic Reproduction number
    Vaccination
    Wavelet Analysis
    Developing Countries
    Infectious Diseases
    Time Series Analysis
    Estimate
    Surveillance
    Periodicity
    Attack
    Strategy
    Community

    Keywords

    • Age at infection
    • Epidemic
    • Periodicity
    • Peru
    • Reproduction number
    • Rubella

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Mathematics(all)

    Cite this

    Rios-Doria, D., Chowell, G., Munayco-Escate, C., Witthembury, A., & Castillo-Chavez, C. (2009). Spatial and temporal dynamics of rubella in Peru, 1997-2006: Geographic patterns, age at infection and estimation of transmissibility. In Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology (pp. 325-341). Springer Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2313-1_13

    Spatial and temporal dynamics of rubella in Peru, 1997-2006 : Geographic patterns, age at infection and estimation of transmissibility. / Rios-Doria, Daniel; Chowell, Gerardo; Munayco-Escate, Cesar; Witthembury, Alvaro; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos.

    Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology. Springer Netherlands, 2009. p. 325-341.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

    Rios-Doria, D, Chowell, G, Munayco-Escate, C, Witthembury, A & Castillo-Chavez, C 2009, Spatial and temporal dynamics of rubella in Peru, 1997-2006: Geographic patterns, age at infection and estimation of transmissibility. in Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology. Springer Netherlands, pp. 325-341. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2313-1_13
    Rios-Doria D, Chowell G, Munayco-Escate C, Witthembury A, Castillo-Chavez C. Spatial and temporal dynamics of rubella in Peru, 1997-2006: Geographic patterns, age at infection and estimation of transmissibility. In Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology. Springer Netherlands. 2009. p. 325-341 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2313-1_13
    Rios-Doria, Daniel ; Chowell, Gerardo ; Munayco-Escate, Cesar ; Witthembury, Alvaro ; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos. / Spatial and temporal dynamics of rubella in Peru, 1997-2006 : Geographic patterns, age at infection and estimation of transmissibility. Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology. Springer Netherlands, 2009. pp. 325-341
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