TY - CHAP
T1 - Spatial and temporal dynamics of rubella in Peru, 1997-2006
T2 - Geographic patterns, age at infection and estimation of transmissibility
AU - Rios-Doria, Daniel
AU - Chowell, Gerardo
AU - Munayco-Escate, Cesar
AU - Witthembury, Alvaro
AU - Castillo-Chavez, Carlos
PY - 2009
Y1 - 2009
N2 - Detailed studies on the spatial and temporal patterns of rubella transmission are scarce particularly in developing countries but could prove useful in improving epidemiological surveillance and intervention strategies such as vaccination. We use highly refined spatial, temporal and age-specific incidence data of Peru, a geographically diverse country, to quantify spatial-temporal patterns of incidence and transmissibility for rubella during the period 1997-2006. We estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0) based on the mean age at infection and the per capita birth rate of the population as well as the reproduction number (accounting for the fraction of the population effectively protected to infection) using the initial intrinsic growth rate of individual outbreaks and estimates of epidemiological parameters for rubella. A wavelet time series analysis is conducted to explore the periodicity of the rubella weekly time series, and the results of our analyses are compared to those carried out for time series of other childhood infectious diseases. We also identify the presence of a critical community size and quantify spatial heterogeneity across geographic regions through the use of Lorenz curves and their corresponding Gini indices. The underlying distributions of rubella outbreak attack rates and epidemic durations across Peru are characterized.
AB - Detailed studies on the spatial and temporal patterns of rubella transmission are scarce particularly in developing countries but could prove useful in improving epidemiological surveillance and intervention strategies such as vaccination. We use highly refined spatial, temporal and age-specific incidence data of Peru, a geographically diverse country, to quantify spatial-temporal patterns of incidence and transmissibility for rubella during the period 1997-2006. We estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0) based on the mean age at infection and the per capita birth rate of the population as well as the reproduction number (accounting for the fraction of the population effectively protected to infection) using the initial intrinsic growth rate of individual outbreaks and estimates of epidemiological parameters for rubella. A wavelet time series analysis is conducted to explore the periodicity of the rubella weekly time series, and the results of our analyses are compared to those carried out for time series of other childhood infectious diseases. We also identify the presence of a critical community size and quantify spatial heterogeneity across geographic regions through the use of Lorenz curves and their corresponding Gini indices. The underlying distributions of rubella outbreak attack rates and epidemic durations across Peru are characterized.
KW - Age at infection
KW - Epidemic
KW - Periodicity
KW - Peru
KW - Reproduction number
KW - Rubella
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U2 - 10.1007/978-90-481-2313-1_13
DO - 10.1007/978-90-481-2313-1_13
M3 - Chapter
AN - SCOPUS:79251491921
SN - 9789048123124
SP - 325
EP - 341
BT - Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology
PB - Springer Netherlands
ER -