Risk factors for human infection with West Nile Virus in Connecticut: A multi-year analysis

Ann Liu, Vivian Lee, Deron Galusha, Martin D. Slade, Maria Diuk-Wasser, Theodore Andreadis, Matthew Scotch, Peter M. Rabinowitz

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

35 Scopus citations

Abstract

Background: The optimal method for early prediction of human West Nile virus (WNV) infection risk remains controversial. We analyzed the predictive utility of risk factor data for human WNV over a six-year period in Connecticut. Results and Discussion: Using only environmental variables or animal sentinel data was less predictive than a model that considered all variables. In the final parsimonious model, population density, growing degree-days, temperature, WNV positive mosquitoes, dead birds and WNV positive birds were significant predictors of human infection risk, with an ROC value of 0.75. Conclusion: A real-time model using climate, land use, and animal surveillance data to predict WNV risk appears feasible. The dynamic patterns of WNV infection suggest a need to periodically refine such prediction systems. Methods: Using multiple logistic regression, the 30-day risk of human WNV infection by town was modeled using environmental variables as well as mosquito and wild bird surveillance.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number67
JournalInternational journal of health geographics
Volume8
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 27 2009

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Science(all)
  • Business, Management and Accounting(all)
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

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