Representative Scenarios to Capture Renewable Generation Stochasticity and Cross-Correlations

Dhaval Dalal, Anamitra Pal, Philip Augustin

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Generating representative scenarios for power system planning in which the stochasticity of renewable generation and cross-correlations between renewables and load are fully captured, is a challenging problem. Traditional methods for scenario generation often fail to generate diverse scenarios that include both seasonal (frequently occurring) and atypical (extreme) days required for planning purposes. This paper presents a methodical approach to generate representative scenarios. It also proposes new metrics that are more relevant for evaluating the generated scenarios from an applications perspective. When applied to historical data from a power utility, the proposed approach resulted in scenarios that included a good mix of seasonal and atypical days. The results also demonstrated pertinence of the proposed cluster validation metrics. Finally, the paper presents a trade-off for determining optimal number of scenarios for a given application.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication2022 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, PESGM 2022
PublisherIEEE Computer Society
ISBN (Electronic)9781665408233
DOIs
StatePublished - 2022
Event2022 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, PESGM 2022 - Denver, United States
Duration: Jul 17 2022Jul 21 2022

Publication series

NameIEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting
Volume2022-July
ISSN (Print)1944-9925
ISSN (Electronic)1944-9933

Conference

Conference2022 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, PESGM 2022
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityDenver
Period7/17/227/21/22

Keywords

  • Cluster validation
  • Clustering
  • Dynamic time warping
  • Renewable planning
  • Scenario generation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Nuclear Energy and Engineering
  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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