Preliminary cost estimates using probabilistic simulation for highway bridge replacement projects

Jui Sheng Chou, Linlin Wang, Wai Kiong Chong, James T. O'Connor

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

9 Scopus citations

Abstract

To improve the accuracy and efficiency of highway budgeting estimation has been an important research focus in the industry and is the objective of this paper. Useful data were extracted from the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) to develop an alternative to achieve the research objective. Heuristic simulation models pertaining to highway bridge replacement projects were developed to guide engineers to reduce estimation variability before the beginning of planning authorization. The proposed simulation models include independent, correlated, and Latin Hypercube sampling approaches that specifically consider major work items, roll-up work items, and project-level engineering contingency. The charts of cumulative density functions (CDFs) are derived as a handy tool for decision makers to consider project finance initiation, project risk and uncertainty assessment. The systematic procedure can be expanded to other project types and to develop lane-km (lane-mile) cost distributions when ample historical project data are available.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationConstruction Research Congress 2005
Subtitle of host publicationBroadening Perspectives - Proceedings of the Congress
EditorsI.D. Tommelein
Pages939-948
Number of pages10
StatePublished - Nov 14 2005
Externally publishedYes
EventConstruction Research Congress 2005: Broadening Perspectives - Proceedings of the Congress - San Diego, CA, United States
Duration: Apr 5 2005Apr 7 2005

Publication series

NameConstruction Research Congress 2005: Broadening Perspectives - Proceedings of the Congress

Other

OtherConstruction Research Congress 2005: Broadening Perspectives - Proceedings of the Congress
CountryUnited States
CitySan Diego, CA
Period4/5/054/7/05

Keywords

  • Bridge replacement
  • Highway project
  • Preliminary cost estimation
  • Risk analysis
  • Simulation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Engineering(all)

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Preliminary cost estimates using probabilistic simulation for highway bridge replacement projects'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this