TY - JOUR
T1 - Predictive modeling using a nationally representative database to identify patients at risk of developing microalbuminuria
AU - Villa-Zapata, Lorenzo
AU - Warholak, Terri
AU - Slack, Marion
AU - Malone, Daniel
AU - Murcko, Anita
AU - Runger, George
AU - Levengood, Michael
PY - 2016/2/1
Y1 - 2016/2/1
N2 - Purpose: Predictive models allow clinicians to identify higher- and lower-risk patients and make targeted treatment decisions. Microalbuminuria (MA) is a condition whose presence is understood to be an early marker for cardiovascular disease. The aims of this study were to develop a patient data-driven predictive model and a risk-score assessment to improve the identification of MA. Methods: The 2007–2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) was utilized to create a predictive model. The dataset was split into thirds; one-third was used to develop the model, while the other two-thirds were utilized for internal validation. The 2012–2013 NHANES was used as an external validation database. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to create the model. Performance was evaluated using three criteria: (1) receiver operating characteristic curves; (2) pseudo-R2 values; and (3) goodness of fit (Hosmer–Lemeshow). The model was then used to develop a risk-score chart. Results: A model was developed using variables for which there was a significant relationship. Variables included were systolic blood pressure, fasting glucose, C-reactive protein, blood urea nitrogen, and alcohol consumption. The model performed well, and no significant differences were observed when utilized in the validation datasets. A risk score was developed, and the probability of developing MA for each score was calculated. Conclusion: The predictive model provides new evidence about variables related with MA and may be used by clinicians to identify at-risk patients and to tailor treatment. The risk score developed may allow clinicians to measure a patient’s MA risk.
AB - Purpose: Predictive models allow clinicians to identify higher- and lower-risk patients and make targeted treatment decisions. Microalbuminuria (MA) is a condition whose presence is understood to be an early marker for cardiovascular disease. The aims of this study were to develop a patient data-driven predictive model and a risk-score assessment to improve the identification of MA. Methods: The 2007–2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) was utilized to create a predictive model. The dataset was split into thirds; one-third was used to develop the model, while the other two-thirds were utilized for internal validation. The 2012–2013 NHANES was used as an external validation database. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to create the model. Performance was evaluated using three criteria: (1) receiver operating characteristic curves; (2) pseudo-R2 values; and (3) goodness of fit (Hosmer–Lemeshow). The model was then used to develop a risk-score chart. Results: A model was developed using variables for which there was a significant relationship. Variables included were systolic blood pressure, fasting glucose, C-reactive protein, blood urea nitrogen, and alcohol consumption. The model performed well, and no significant differences were observed when utilized in the validation datasets. A risk score was developed, and the probability of developing MA for each score was calculated. Conclusion: The predictive model provides new evidence about variables related with MA and may be used by clinicians to identify at-risk patients and to tailor treatment. The risk score developed may allow clinicians to measure a patient’s MA risk.
KW - Albuminuria
KW - Microalbuminuria
KW - Predictive model
KW - Proteinuria
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U2 - 10.1007/s11255-015-1183-x
DO - 10.1007/s11255-015-1183-x
M3 - Article
C2 - 26661258
AN - SCOPUS:84956680381
SN - 0301-1623
VL - 48
SP - 249
EP - 256
JO - International Urology and Nephrology
JF - International Urology and Nephrology
IS - 2
ER -