TY - JOUR
T1 - Modeling traffic volatility dynamics in an urban network
AU - Kamarianakis, Yiannis
AU - Kanas, Angelos
AU - Prastacos, Poulicos
N1 - Copyright:
Copyright 2018 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2005
Y1 - 2005
N2 - This article discusses the application of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) time series models for representing the dynamics of traffic flow volatility. The methods encountered in the literature focus on the levels of traffic flows and assume that variance is constant through time. The approach adopted in this paper concentrates primarily on the autoregressive properties of traffic variability, with the aim to provide better confidence intervals for traffic flow forecasts. The model-building procedure is illustrated with 7.5-min average traffic flow data for a set of 11 loop detectors located at major arterials that direct to the center of the city of Athens, Greece. A sensitivity analysis for coefficient estimates is undertaken with respect to both time and space.
AB - This article discusses the application of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) time series models for representing the dynamics of traffic flow volatility. The methods encountered in the literature focus on the levels of traffic flows and assume that variance is constant through time. The approach adopted in this paper concentrates primarily on the autoregressive properties of traffic variability, with the aim to provide better confidence intervals for traffic flow forecasts. The model-building procedure is illustrated with 7.5-min average traffic flow data for a set of 11 loop detectors located at major arterials that direct to the center of the city of Athens, Greece. A sensitivity analysis for coefficient estimates is undertaken with respect to both time and space.
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U2 - 10.3141/1923-03
DO - 10.3141/1923-03
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:33645673658
SP - 18
EP - 27
JO - Transportation Research Record
JF - Transportation Research Record
SN - 0361-1981
IS - 1923
ER -