Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change

Sadie J. Ryan, Amy Mcnally, Leah R. Johnson, Erin A. Mordecai, Tal Ben-Horin, Krijn Paaijmans, Kevin D. Lafferty

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

33 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)718-725
Number of pages8
JournalVector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases
Volume15
Issue number12
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2015
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Climate Change
Malaria
Temperature
Anopheles gambiae
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Western Africa
Uganda
Falciparum Malaria
Population Density
Climate
Parasites
Demography

Keywords

  • Africa
  • Climate change
  • Malaria
  • Physiological response

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Microbiology
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Virology

Cite this

Ryan, S. J., Mcnally, A., Johnson, L. R., Mordecai, E. A., Ben-Horin, T., Paaijmans, K., & Lafferty, K. D. (2015). Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change. Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases, 15(12), 718-725. https://doi.org/10.1089/vbz.2015.1822

Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change. / Ryan, Sadie J.; Mcnally, Amy; Johnson, Leah R.; Mordecai, Erin A.; Ben-Horin, Tal; Paaijmans, Krijn; Lafferty, Kevin D.

In: Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases, Vol. 15, No. 12, 01.12.2015, p. 718-725.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Ryan, SJ, Mcnally, A, Johnson, LR, Mordecai, EA, Ben-Horin, T, Paaijmans, K & Lafferty, KD 2015, 'Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change', Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases, vol. 15, no. 12, pp. 718-725. https://doi.org/10.1089/vbz.2015.1822
Ryan, Sadie J. ; Mcnally, Amy ; Johnson, Leah R. ; Mordecai, Erin A. ; Ben-Horin, Tal ; Paaijmans, Krijn ; Lafferty, Kevin D. / Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change. In: Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases. 2015 ; Vol. 15, No. 12. pp. 718-725.
@article{de62abf997fc48ba97cd390e72563e1f,
title = "Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change",
abstract = "We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control.",
keywords = "Africa, Climate change, Malaria, Physiological response",
author = "Ryan, {Sadie J.} and Amy Mcnally and Johnson, {Leah R.} and Mordecai, {Erin A.} and Tal Ben-Horin and Krijn Paaijmans and Lafferty, {Kevin D.}",
year = "2015",
month = "12",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1089/vbz.2015.1822",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "15",
pages = "718--725",
journal = "Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases",
issn = "1530-3667",
publisher = "Mary Ann Liebert Inc.",
number = "12",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change

AU - Ryan, Sadie J.

AU - Mcnally, Amy

AU - Johnson, Leah R.

AU - Mordecai, Erin A.

AU - Ben-Horin, Tal

AU - Paaijmans, Krijn

AU - Lafferty, Kevin D.

PY - 2015/12/1

Y1 - 2015/12/1

N2 - We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control.

AB - We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control.

KW - Africa

KW - Climate change

KW - Malaria

KW - Physiological response

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84951852708&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84951852708&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1089/vbz.2015.1822

DO - 10.1089/vbz.2015.1822

M3 - Article

C2 - 26579951

AN - SCOPUS:84951852708

VL - 15

SP - 718

EP - 725

JO - Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases

JF - Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases

SN - 1530-3667

IS - 12

ER -