Increased costs to US pavement infrastructure from future temperature rise

B. Shane Underwood, Zack Guido, Padmini Gudipudi, Yarden Feinberg

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    11 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Roadway design aims to maximize functionality, safety, and longevity. The materials used for construction, however, are often selected on the assumption of a stationary climate. Anthropogenic climate change may therefore result in rapid infrastructure failure and, consequently, increased maintenance costs, particularly for paved roads where temperature is a key determinant for material selection. Here, we examine the economic costs of projected temperature changes on asphalt roads across the contiguous United States using an ensemble of 19 global climate models forced with RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Over the past 20 years, stationary assumptions have resulted in incorrect material selection for 35% of 799 observed locations. With warming temperatures, maintaining the standard practice for material selection is estimated to add approximately US$13.6, US$19.0 and US$21.8 billion to pavement costs by 2010, 2040 and 2070 under RCP4.5, respectively, increasing to US$14.5, US$26.3 and US$35.8 for RCP8.5. These costs will disproportionately affect local municipalities that have fewer resources to mitigate impacts. Failing to update engineering standards of practice in light of climate change therefore significantly threatens pavement infrastructure in the United States.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)704-707
    Number of pages4
    JournalNature Climate Change
    Volume7
    Issue number10
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Sep 29 2017

    Fingerprint

    pavement
    infrastructure
    costs
    cost
    climate change
    temperature
    climate
    road
    asphalt
    functionality
    municipality
    global climate
    climate modeling
    warming
    determinants
    engineering
    scenario
    safety
    material
    resource

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
    • Social Sciences (miscellaneous)

    Cite this

    Increased costs to US pavement infrastructure from future temperature rise. / Underwood, B. Shane; Guido, Zack; Gudipudi, Padmini; Feinberg, Yarden.

    In: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 10, 29.09.2017, p. 704-707.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Underwood, BS, Guido, Z, Gudipudi, P & Feinberg, Y 2017, 'Increased costs to US pavement infrastructure from future temperature rise', Nature Climate Change, vol. 7, no. 10, pp. 704-707. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3390
    Underwood, B. Shane ; Guido, Zack ; Gudipudi, Padmini ; Feinberg, Yarden. / Increased costs to US pavement infrastructure from future temperature rise. In: Nature Climate Change. 2017 ; Vol. 7, No. 10. pp. 704-707.
    @article{da2edcc0f67f46f0a3c0f668256a2f13,
    title = "Increased costs to US pavement infrastructure from future temperature rise",
    abstract = "Roadway design aims to maximize functionality, safety, and longevity. The materials used for construction, however, are often selected on the assumption of a stationary climate. Anthropogenic climate change may therefore result in rapid infrastructure failure and, consequently, increased maintenance costs, particularly for paved roads where temperature is a key determinant for material selection. Here, we examine the economic costs of projected temperature changes on asphalt roads across the contiguous United States using an ensemble of 19 global climate models forced with RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Over the past 20 years, stationary assumptions have resulted in incorrect material selection for 35{\%} of 799 observed locations. With warming temperatures, maintaining the standard practice for material selection is estimated to add approximately US$13.6, US$19.0 and US$21.8 billion to pavement costs by 2010, 2040 and 2070 under RCP4.5, respectively, increasing to US$14.5, US$26.3 and US$35.8 for RCP8.5. These costs will disproportionately affect local municipalities that have fewer resources to mitigate impacts. Failing to update engineering standards of practice in light of climate change therefore significantly threatens pavement infrastructure in the United States.",
    author = "Underwood, {B. Shane} and Zack Guido and Padmini Gudipudi and Yarden Feinberg",
    year = "2017",
    month = "9",
    day = "29",
    doi = "10.1038/nclimate3390",
    language = "English (US)",
    volume = "7",
    pages = "704--707",
    journal = "Nature Climate Change",
    issn = "1758-678X",
    publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",
    number = "10",

    }

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Increased costs to US pavement infrastructure from future temperature rise

    AU - Underwood, B. Shane

    AU - Guido, Zack

    AU - Gudipudi, Padmini

    AU - Feinberg, Yarden

    PY - 2017/9/29

    Y1 - 2017/9/29

    N2 - Roadway design aims to maximize functionality, safety, and longevity. The materials used for construction, however, are often selected on the assumption of a stationary climate. Anthropogenic climate change may therefore result in rapid infrastructure failure and, consequently, increased maintenance costs, particularly for paved roads where temperature is a key determinant for material selection. Here, we examine the economic costs of projected temperature changes on asphalt roads across the contiguous United States using an ensemble of 19 global climate models forced with RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Over the past 20 years, stationary assumptions have resulted in incorrect material selection for 35% of 799 observed locations. With warming temperatures, maintaining the standard practice for material selection is estimated to add approximately US$13.6, US$19.0 and US$21.8 billion to pavement costs by 2010, 2040 and 2070 under RCP4.5, respectively, increasing to US$14.5, US$26.3 and US$35.8 for RCP8.5. These costs will disproportionately affect local municipalities that have fewer resources to mitigate impacts. Failing to update engineering standards of practice in light of climate change therefore significantly threatens pavement infrastructure in the United States.

    AB - Roadway design aims to maximize functionality, safety, and longevity. The materials used for construction, however, are often selected on the assumption of a stationary climate. Anthropogenic climate change may therefore result in rapid infrastructure failure and, consequently, increased maintenance costs, particularly for paved roads where temperature is a key determinant for material selection. Here, we examine the economic costs of projected temperature changes on asphalt roads across the contiguous United States using an ensemble of 19 global climate models forced with RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Over the past 20 years, stationary assumptions have resulted in incorrect material selection for 35% of 799 observed locations. With warming temperatures, maintaining the standard practice for material selection is estimated to add approximately US$13.6, US$19.0 and US$21.8 billion to pavement costs by 2010, 2040 and 2070 under RCP4.5, respectively, increasing to US$14.5, US$26.3 and US$35.8 for RCP8.5. These costs will disproportionately affect local municipalities that have fewer resources to mitigate impacts. Failing to update engineering standards of practice in light of climate change therefore significantly threatens pavement infrastructure in the United States.

    UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85032579195&partnerID=8YFLogxK

    UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85032579195&partnerID=8YFLogxK

    U2 - 10.1038/nclimate3390

    DO - 10.1038/nclimate3390

    M3 - Article

    VL - 7

    SP - 704

    EP - 707

    JO - Nature Climate Change

    JF - Nature Climate Change

    SN - 1758-678X

    IS - 10

    ER -