Impacts of urban expansion on ecosystem services in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, China

A scenario analysis based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Da Zhang, Qingxu Huang, Chunyang He, Jianguo Wu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

35 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Understanding the impacts of urban expansion on ecosystem services (ESs) is important for sustainable development on regional and global scales. However, due to the uncertainty of future socioeconomic development and the complexity of urban expansion, assessing the impacts of future urban expansion on ESs remains challenging. In this study, we simulated the urban expansion in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration in China from 2013 to 2040, and assessed its potential impacts on ESs based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model. We found that urban land in the BTH urban agglomeration is expected to increase from 7605.25 km2 in 2013 to 9401.75–11,936.00 km2 in 2040. With continuing urban expansion, food production (FP), carbon storage (CS), water retention (WR), and air purification (AP) will decrease by 1.34–3.16%, 0.68–1.60%, 0.80–1.89%, and 0.37–0.87%, respectively. The conversion of cropland to urban land will be the main cause of ES losses. During 2013–2040, the losses of ESs caused by this conversion will account for 83.66–97.11% of the total losses in the whole region. Furthermore, the ES losses can cause considerable negative impacts on human well-being. The loss of FP will be equivalent to the food requirement of 3.68–8.61% of the total population in 2040, and the loss of CS will be 2.55–6.01% of the total standard coal consumption in 2013. To ensure sustainable development in the region, we suggest that effective policies and regulations should be implemented to protect cropland with high ES values from urban expansion.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)115-130
Number of pages16
JournalResources, Conservation and Recycling
Volume125
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 1 2017

Fingerprint

agglomeration
ecosystem service
food production
carbon sequestration
sustainable development
water retention
scenario analysis
socioeconomics
Scenario analysis
Pathway
Urban agglomeration
Beijing
Socio-economics
China
Ecosystem services
purification
loss
coal
land use
air

Keywords

  • Ecosystem service
  • LUSD-urban model
  • Scenario analysis
  • SSPs
  • Urban expansion

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Waste Management and Disposal
  • Economics and Econometrics

Cite this

@article{391daa10eadd48bda7555aad731b24ce,
title = "Impacts of urban expansion on ecosystem services in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, China: A scenario analysis based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways",
abstract = "Understanding the impacts of urban expansion on ecosystem services (ESs) is important for sustainable development on regional and global scales. However, due to the uncertainty of future socioeconomic development and the complexity of urban expansion, assessing the impacts of future urban expansion on ESs remains challenging. In this study, we simulated the urban expansion in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration in China from 2013 to 2040, and assessed its potential impacts on ESs based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model. We found that urban land in the BTH urban agglomeration is expected to increase from 7605.25 km2 in 2013 to 9401.75–11,936.00 km2 in 2040. With continuing urban expansion, food production (FP), carbon storage (CS), water retention (WR), and air purification (AP) will decrease by 1.34–3.16{\%}, 0.68–1.60{\%}, 0.80–1.89{\%}, and 0.37–0.87{\%}, respectively. The conversion of cropland to urban land will be the main cause of ES losses. During 2013–2040, the losses of ESs caused by this conversion will account for 83.66–97.11{\%} of the total losses in the whole region. Furthermore, the ES losses can cause considerable negative impacts on human well-being. The loss of FP will be equivalent to the food requirement of 3.68–8.61{\%} of the total population in 2040, and the loss of CS will be 2.55–6.01{\%} of the total standard coal consumption in 2013. To ensure sustainable development in the region, we suggest that effective policies and regulations should be implemented to protect cropland with high ES values from urban expansion.",
keywords = "Ecosystem service, LUSD-urban model, Scenario analysis, SSPs, Urban expansion",
author = "Da Zhang and Qingxu Huang and Chunyang He and Jianguo Wu",
year = "2017",
month = "10",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.06.003",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "125",
pages = "115--130",
journal = "Resources, Conservation and Recycling",
issn = "0921-3449",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Impacts of urban expansion on ecosystem services in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, China

T2 - A scenario analysis based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

AU - Zhang, Da

AU - Huang, Qingxu

AU - He, Chunyang

AU - Wu, Jianguo

PY - 2017/10/1

Y1 - 2017/10/1

N2 - Understanding the impacts of urban expansion on ecosystem services (ESs) is important for sustainable development on regional and global scales. However, due to the uncertainty of future socioeconomic development and the complexity of urban expansion, assessing the impacts of future urban expansion on ESs remains challenging. In this study, we simulated the urban expansion in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration in China from 2013 to 2040, and assessed its potential impacts on ESs based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model. We found that urban land in the BTH urban agglomeration is expected to increase from 7605.25 km2 in 2013 to 9401.75–11,936.00 km2 in 2040. With continuing urban expansion, food production (FP), carbon storage (CS), water retention (WR), and air purification (AP) will decrease by 1.34–3.16%, 0.68–1.60%, 0.80–1.89%, and 0.37–0.87%, respectively. The conversion of cropland to urban land will be the main cause of ES losses. During 2013–2040, the losses of ESs caused by this conversion will account for 83.66–97.11% of the total losses in the whole region. Furthermore, the ES losses can cause considerable negative impacts on human well-being. The loss of FP will be equivalent to the food requirement of 3.68–8.61% of the total population in 2040, and the loss of CS will be 2.55–6.01% of the total standard coal consumption in 2013. To ensure sustainable development in the region, we suggest that effective policies and regulations should be implemented to protect cropland with high ES values from urban expansion.

AB - Understanding the impacts of urban expansion on ecosystem services (ESs) is important for sustainable development on regional and global scales. However, due to the uncertainty of future socioeconomic development and the complexity of urban expansion, assessing the impacts of future urban expansion on ESs remains challenging. In this study, we simulated the urban expansion in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration in China from 2013 to 2040, and assessed its potential impacts on ESs based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model. We found that urban land in the BTH urban agglomeration is expected to increase from 7605.25 km2 in 2013 to 9401.75–11,936.00 km2 in 2040. With continuing urban expansion, food production (FP), carbon storage (CS), water retention (WR), and air purification (AP) will decrease by 1.34–3.16%, 0.68–1.60%, 0.80–1.89%, and 0.37–0.87%, respectively. The conversion of cropland to urban land will be the main cause of ES losses. During 2013–2040, the losses of ESs caused by this conversion will account for 83.66–97.11% of the total losses in the whole region. Furthermore, the ES losses can cause considerable negative impacts on human well-being. The loss of FP will be equivalent to the food requirement of 3.68–8.61% of the total population in 2040, and the loss of CS will be 2.55–6.01% of the total standard coal consumption in 2013. To ensure sustainable development in the region, we suggest that effective policies and regulations should be implemented to protect cropland with high ES values from urban expansion.

KW - Ecosystem service

KW - LUSD-urban model

KW - Scenario analysis

KW - SSPs

KW - Urban expansion

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85020938980&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85020938980&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.06.003

DO - 10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.06.003

M3 - Article

VL - 125

SP - 115

EP - 130

JO - Resources, Conservation and Recycling

JF - Resources, Conservation and Recycling

SN - 0921-3449

ER -