Impact of climate change on pavement structural performance in the United States

Padmini P. Gudipudi, B. Shane Underwood, Ali Zalghout

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This study uses climate projections from multiple models and for different climate regions to investigate how climate change may impact the transportation infrastructure in the United States. Climate data from both an ensemble of 19 different climate models at both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 as well as three individual prediction models at the same Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) levels is used. These models are integrated into the AASHTOWare Pavement ME software to predict the pavement performance. Comparisons are made between the predicted performance with respect to typical pavement distresses using both historical climate data as well as climate projection data. Though there is substantial variation for different prediction models in terms of the magnitude of the impact, the consistency in results suggest that projected climate changes are highly likely to result in greater distresses and/or earlier failure of the pavement. This finding is consistent across all the climate zones studied, but varies in magnitude of 2–9% for fatigue cracking and 9–40% for AC rutting at the end of 20 years depending on the climate region of the pavement section and prediction model used. This study also compares the impacts incorporating temperature only projections with temperature and precipitation projections. In this respect, the sections considered in this study do not show any substantial difference in the pavement performance when the precipitation data from the climate predictions are also considered in the climate inputs into AASHTOWare Pavement ME software.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)172-184
Number of pages13
JournalTransportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Volume57
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2017

Fingerprint

pavement
Climate change
Pavements
climate change
climate
performance
projection
prediction
Climate models
rutting
software
transportation infrastructure
climate prediction
fatigue
climate modeling
Fatigue of materials
temperature
Temperature
infrastructure

Keywords

  • AASHTOWare pavement ME software
  • Climate change
  • CMIP5
  • Impact assessment
  • Pavement performance

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Transportation
  • Environmental Science(all)

Cite this

Impact of climate change on pavement structural performance in the United States. / Gudipudi, Padmini P.; Underwood, B. Shane; Zalghout, Ali.

In: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 57, 01.12.2017, p. 172-184.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Gudipudi, Padmini P. ; Underwood, B. Shane ; Zalghout, Ali. / Impact of climate change on pavement structural performance in the United States. In: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. 2017 ; Vol. 57. pp. 172-184.
@article{193d45ea539b478a8b1e0518be2b5880,
title = "Impact of climate change on pavement structural performance in the United States",
abstract = "This study uses climate projections from multiple models and for different climate regions to investigate how climate change may impact the transportation infrastructure in the United States. Climate data from both an ensemble of 19 different climate models at both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 as well as three individual prediction models at the same Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) levels is used. These models are integrated into the AASHTOWare Pavement ME software to predict the pavement performance. Comparisons are made between the predicted performance with respect to typical pavement distresses using both historical climate data as well as climate projection data. Though there is substantial variation for different prediction models in terms of the magnitude of the impact, the consistency in results suggest that projected climate changes are highly likely to result in greater distresses and/or earlier failure of the pavement. This finding is consistent across all the climate zones studied, but varies in magnitude of 2–9{\%} for fatigue cracking and 9–40{\%} for AC rutting at the end of 20 years depending on the climate region of the pavement section and prediction model used. This study also compares the impacts incorporating temperature only projections with temperature and precipitation projections. In this respect, the sections considered in this study do not show any substantial difference in the pavement performance when the precipitation data from the climate predictions are also considered in the climate inputs into AASHTOWare Pavement ME software.",
keywords = "AASHTOWare pavement ME software, Climate change, CMIP5, Impact assessment, Pavement performance",
author = "Gudipudi, {Padmini P.} and Underwood, {B. Shane} and Ali Zalghout",
year = "2017",
month = "12",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.trd.2017.09.022",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "57",
pages = "172--184",
journal = "Transportation Research, Part D: Transport and Environment",
issn = "1361-9209",
publisher = "Elsevier Limited",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Impact of climate change on pavement structural performance in the United States

AU - Gudipudi, Padmini P.

AU - Underwood, B. Shane

AU - Zalghout, Ali

PY - 2017/12/1

Y1 - 2017/12/1

N2 - This study uses climate projections from multiple models and for different climate regions to investigate how climate change may impact the transportation infrastructure in the United States. Climate data from both an ensemble of 19 different climate models at both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 as well as three individual prediction models at the same Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) levels is used. These models are integrated into the AASHTOWare Pavement ME software to predict the pavement performance. Comparisons are made between the predicted performance with respect to typical pavement distresses using both historical climate data as well as climate projection data. Though there is substantial variation for different prediction models in terms of the magnitude of the impact, the consistency in results suggest that projected climate changes are highly likely to result in greater distresses and/or earlier failure of the pavement. This finding is consistent across all the climate zones studied, but varies in magnitude of 2–9% for fatigue cracking and 9–40% for AC rutting at the end of 20 years depending on the climate region of the pavement section and prediction model used. This study also compares the impacts incorporating temperature only projections with temperature and precipitation projections. In this respect, the sections considered in this study do not show any substantial difference in the pavement performance when the precipitation data from the climate predictions are also considered in the climate inputs into AASHTOWare Pavement ME software.

AB - This study uses climate projections from multiple models and for different climate regions to investigate how climate change may impact the transportation infrastructure in the United States. Climate data from both an ensemble of 19 different climate models at both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 as well as three individual prediction models at the same Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) levels is used. These models are integrated into the AASHTOWare Pavement ME software to predict the pavement performance. Comparisons are made between the predicted performance with respect to typical pavement distresses using both historical climate data as well as climate projection data. Though there is substantial variation for different prediction models in terms of the magnitude of the impact, the consistency in results suggest that projected climate changes are highly likely to result in greater distresses and/or earlier failure of the pavement. This finding is consistent across all the climate zones studied, but varies in magnitude of 2–9% for fatigue cracking and 9–40% for AC rutting at the end of 20 years depending on the climate region of the pavement section and prediction model used. This study also compares the impacts incorporating temperature only projections with temperature and precipitation projections. In this respect, the sections considered in this study do not show any substantial difference in the pavement performance when the precipitation data from the climate predictions are also considered in the climate inputs into AASHTOWare Pavement ME software.

KW - AASHTOWare pavement ME software

KW - Climate change

KW - CMIP5

KW - Impact assessment

KW - Pavement performance

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85033554543&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85033554543&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.trd.2017.09.022

DO - 10.1016/j.trd.2017.09.022

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85033554543

VL - 57

SP - 172

EP - 184

JO - Transportation Research, Part D: Transport and Environment

JF - Transportation Research, Part D: Transport and Environment

SN - 1361-9209

ER -