Fluid Injection and Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard in the Barnett Shale, Texas

The Barnett Shale in Texas experienced an increase in seismicity since 2008, coinciding with high-volume deep fluid injection. Despite the spatial proximity, the lack of a first-order correlation between seismic records and the total volume of injected fluid requires more comprehensive geomechanical analysis, which accounts for local hydrogeology. Using time-varying injections at 96 wells and employing a coupled linear poroelastic model, we simulate the spatiotemporal evolution of pore pressure and poroelastic stresses during 2007–2015. The overall contribution of poroelastic stresses to Coulomb failure stress change is ~10% of that of pore pressure; however, both can explain the spatiotemporal distribution of earthquakes. We use a seismicity rate model to calculate earthquake magnitude exceedance probability due to stress changes. The obtained time-dependent seismic hazard is heterogeneous in space and time. Decreasing injection rates does not necessarily reduce probabilities immediately.