TY - JOUR
T1 - Cooking the books
T2 - Strategic inflation of casualty reports by extremists in the Afghanistan conflict
AU - Chris, Lundry
AU - Corman, Steven
AU - Bennett Furlow, R.
AU - Errickson, Kirk W.
N1 - Funding Information:
Received 4 June 2011; accepted 20 November 2011. This research was supported by a grant from the Office of Naval Research (N00014-09-1-0872). Address correspondence to Chris Lundry, P.O. Box 871205, Tempe, AZ 85287-1205, USA.
PY - 2012/5
Y1 - 2012/5
N2 - Islamist extremists in Afghanistan and elsewhere are exaggerating their successes in inflicting casualties on American and other International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) forces. This article quantifies the exaggeration for the month of November 2010, putting the claimed casualty rate at approximately one-half battalion per month. It provides an analysis of how and why this is occurring, and links this extremist strategic communication effort to dominant historical master narratives in the region that may produce sympathy among intended recipients of the messages. The authors argue that these measures undertaken by the extremists can be countered successfully through the use of similar story forms, more timely reporting, use of side-by-side comparisons, and use of similar reporting venues. These steps could challenge the credibility of the Taliban reports, reduce sympathy, and diminish potential recruitment.
AB - Islamist extremists in Afghanistan and elsewhere are exaggerating their successes in inflicting casualties on American and other International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) forces. This article quantifies the exaggeration for the month of November 2010, putting the claimed casualty rate at approximately one-half battalion per month. It provides an analysis of how and why this is occurring, and links this extremist strategic communication effort to dominant historical master narratives in the region that may produce sympathy among intended recipients of the messages. The authors argue that these measures undertaken by the extremists can be countered successfully through the use of similar story forms, more timely reporting, use of side-by-side comparisons, and use of similar reporting venues. These steps could challenge the credibility of the Taliban reports, reduce sympathy, and diminish potential recruitment.
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U2 - 10.1080/1057610X.2012.666821
DO - 10.1080/1057610X.2012.666821
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84860329785
SN - 1057-610X
VL - 35
SP - 369
EP - 381
JO - Studies in Conflict and Terrorism
JF - Studies in Conflict and Terrorism
IS - 5
ER -