Assessing the risk of observing multiple generations of middle east respiratory syndrome (MERS) cases given an imported case

H. Nishiura, Y. Miyamatsu, G. Chowell, M. Saitoh

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

29 Scopus citations

Abstract

To guide risk assessment, expected numbers of cases and generations were estimated, assuming a case importation of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Our analysis of 36 importation events yielded the risk of observing secondary transmission events at 22.7% (95% confidence interval: 19.3–25.1). The risks of observing generations 2, 3 and 4 were estimated at 10.5%, 6.1% and 3.9%, respectively. Countries at risk should be ready for highly variable outcomes following an importation of MERS.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)6-11
Number of pages6
JournalEurosurveillance
Volume20
Issue number27
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 9 2015

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • Virology

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