Assessing the risk of observing multiple generations of middle east respiratory syndrome (MERS) cases given an imported case

H. Nishiura; Y. Miyamatsu; G. Chowell; M. Saitoh

doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES2015.20.27.21181

Assessing the risk of observing multiple generations of middle east respiratory syndrome (MERS) cases given an imported case

H. Nishiura, Y. Miyamatsu, G. Chowell, M. Saitoh

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

37 Scopus citations

Abstract

To guide risk assessment, expected numbers of cases and generations were estimated, assuming a case importation of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Our analysis of 36 importation events yielded the risk of observing secondary transmission events at 22.7% (95% confidence interval: 19.3–25.1). The risks of observing generations 2, 3 and 4 were estimated at 10.5%, 6.1% and 3.9%, respectively. Countries at risk should be ready for highly variable outcomes following an importation of MERS.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	6-11
Number of pages	6
Journal	Eurosurveillance
Volume	20
Issue number	27
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES2015.20.27.21181
State	Published - Jul 9 2015
Externally published	Yes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Epidemiology
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Virology

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Assessing the risk of observing multiple generations of middle east respiratory syndrome (MERS) cases given an imported case

Abstract

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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