Analysis of wheat yield and climatic trends in Mexico

David B. Lobell, J. Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, Gregory P. Asner, Pamela A. Matson, Rosamond L. Naylor, Walter P. Falcon

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Wheat yields in Mexico, which represent an important measure of breeding and management progress in developing world wheat production, have increased by 25% over the past two decades. Using a combination of mechanistic and statistical models, we show that much of this increase can be attributed to climatic trends in Northwest states, in particular cooling of growing season nighttime temperatures. This finding suggests that short-term prospects for yield progress are smaller than suggested by recent yield increases, and that future gains will require an intensification of research and extension efforts aimed at raising wheat yields.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)250-256
Number of pages7
JournalField Crops Research
Volume94
Issue number2-3
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 15 2005
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

trend analysis
Climate change
crop yield
Statistical methods
mathematical models
statistical analysis
wheat
Mexico
climate change
Mathematical models
Cooling
climate
Temperature
mechanistic models
growing season
statistical models
developing world
breeding
cooling
analysis

Keywords

  • CERES
  • Climate
  • Mexico
  • Wheat

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agronomy and Crop Science
  • Soil Science

Cite this

Lobell, D. B., Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I., Asner, G. P., Matson, P. A., Naylor, R. L., & Falcon, W. P. (2005). Analysis of wheat yield and climatic trends in Mexico. Field Crops Research, 94(2-3), 250-256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2005.01.007

Analysis of wheat yield and climatic trends in Mexico. / Lobell, David B.; Ortiz-Monasterio, J. Ivan; Asner, Gregory P.; Matson, Pamela A.; Naylor, Rosamond L.; Falcon, Walter P.

In: Field Crops Research, Vol. 94, No. 2-3, 15.11.2005, p. 250-256.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Lobell, DB, Ortiz-Monasterio, JI, Asner, GP, Matson, PA, Naylor, RL & Falcon, WP 2005, 'Analysis of wheat yield and climatic trends in Mexico', Field Crops Research, vol. 94, no. 2-3, pp. 250-256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2005.01.007
Lobell DB, Ortiz-Monasterio JI, Asner GP, Matson PA, Naylor RL, Falcon WP. Analysis of wheat yield and climatic trends in Mexico. Field Crops Research. 2005 Nov 15;94(2-3):250-256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2005.01.007
Lobell, David B. ; Ortiz-Monasterio, J. Ivan ; Asner, Gregory P. ; Matson, Pamela A. ; Naylor, Rosamond L. ; Falcon, Walter P. / Analysis of wheat yield and climatic trends in Mexico. In: Field Crops Research. 2005 ; Vol. 94, No. 2-3. pp. 250-256.
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