Analysis of the duration, seasonal timing, and location of North Atlantic tropical cyclones: 1950-2002

Many scientists have suggested that a warmer world with elevated atmospheric moisture levels could increase the frequency, intensity, or duration of future tropical cyclones or alter their mean locations. While others have examined historical patterns in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity, and generally found no trends in recent decades, we analyzed tropical cyclone records from the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and tropical sector of the western North Atlantic over the period 1950-2002 with a focus on the duration, seasonal timing, and geographic position of the events. We found no significant trends in the start date, ending date, or duration of the storm season (defined in various ways) and no trends in the average geographic position of the storms. Furthermore, these measures of hurricane season timing and storm locations were not related to regional sea surface temperature or the northern hemispheric or global temperatures.