AGGREGATE AND DISAGGREGATE TRAVEL DEMAND MODELS

An empirical investigation of the relative merits of aggregate and disaggregate travel demand models is carried out. Specifically, the empirical investigation concerns models of travel mode choice, using work-trip data for CBD trips in London, England, and Syracuse, N. Y. This research represents the first such comparison to be made between aggregate and disaggregate models of intraurban trips. Initially, the statistically ″best″ disaggregate models were constructed for each data set and estimation of the modal choices from the other data set was attempted. Statistical measures were computed for each model to assess the goodness-of-fit achieved. Subsequently, the data were aggregated to districts, based on the London Transportation Study, for the London data, and to zip code areas for the Syracuse data. Again, the statistically ″best″ aggregate models were constructed for each data set and the same statistical and estimation tests were made for the aggregate models.