A global model for forecasting political instability

Jack A. Goldstone, Robert H. Bates, David L. Epstein, Ted Robert Gurr, Michael B. Lustik, Monty G. Marshall, Jay Ulfelder, Mark Woodward

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

327 Scopus citations

Abstract

Examining onsets of political instability in countries worldwide from 1955 to 2003, we develop a model that distinguishes countries that experienced instability from those that remained stable with a two-year lead time and over 80% accuracy. Intriguingly, the model uses few variables and a simple specification. The model is accurate in forecasting the onsets of both violent civil wars and nonviolent democratic reversals, suggesting common factors in both types of change. Whereas regime type is typically measured using linear or binary indicators of democracy/autocracy derived from the 21-point Polity scale, the model uses a nonlinear five-category measure of regime type based on the Polity components. This new measure of regime type emerges as the most powerful predictor of instability onsets, leading us to conclude that political institutions, properly specified, and not economic conditions, demography, or geography, are the most important predictors of the onset of political instability.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)190-208
Number of pages19
JournalAmerican Journal of Political Science
Volume54
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 2010

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Sociology and Political Science
  • Political Science and International Relations

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    Goldstone, J. A., Bates, R. H., Epstein, D. L., Gurr, T. R., Lustik, M. B., Marshall, M. G., Ulfelder, J., & Woodward, M. (2010). A global model for forecasting political instability. American Journal of Political Science, 54(1), 190-208. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00426.x