A dynamic model of housing supply

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Abstract

This paper estimates a dynamic microeconometric model of housing supply. The model features forward-looking landowners who optimally choose both the timing and the nature of construction while taking into account expectations about future prices and costs. The model is estimated using a unique dataset describing individual landowners in the San Francisco Bay Area. Results indicate that geographic and time-series variation in costs are key to understanding where and when construction occurs. Pro-cyclical costs provide an incentive for some landowners to build before price peaks. Results also indicate that landowners actively "time" the market, which reduces the elasticity of supply.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)243-267
Number of pages25
JournalAmerican Economic Journal: Economic Policy
Volume10
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 1 2018

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ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)

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