A bayesian hierarchical model for inferring player strategy types in a number guessing game

P. Richard Hahn; Indranil Goswami; Carl F. Mela

doi:10.1214/15-AOAS830

A bayesian hierarchical model for inferring player strategy types in a number guessing game

P. Richard Hahn, Indranil Goswami, Carl F. Mela

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

The p-beauty contest is a multi-player number guessing game that is widely used to study strategic behavior. Using new data from a speciallydesigned web experiment, we examine the evidence in favor of a popular class of behavioral economic models called k-step thinking models. After fitting a custom Bayesian spline model to the experimental data, we estimate that the proportion of players who could be using a k-step thinking strategy is approximately 25%.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	1459-1483
Number of pages	25
Journal	Annals of Applied Statistics
Volume	9
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1214/15-AOAS830
State	Published - Sep 2015
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Behavioral game theory
Hierarchical modeling
Partial identification

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Statistics and Probability
Modeling and Simulation
Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty

Access to Document

10.1214/15-AOAS830

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