Abstract
The p-beauty contest is a multi-player number guessing game that is widely used to study strategic behavior. Using new data from a speciallydesigned web experiment, we examine the evidence in favor of a popular class of behavioral economic models called k-step thinking models. After fitting a custom Bayesian spline model to the experimental data, we estimate that the proportion of players who could be using a k-step thinking strategy is approximately 25%.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1459-1483 |
| Number of pages | 25 |
| Journal | Annals of Applied Statistics |
| Volume | 9 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Jan 1 2015 |
| Externally published | Yes |
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Keywords
- Behavioral game theory
- Hierarchical modeling
- Partial identification
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Statistics and Probability
- Modeling and Simulation
- Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
Cite this
A bayesian hierarchical model for inferring player strategy types in a number guessing game. / Hahn, Paul; Goswami, Indranil; Mela, Carl F.
In: Annals of Applied Statistics, Vol. 9, No. 3, 01.01.2015, p. 1459-1483.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - A bayesian hierarchical model for inferring player strategy types in a number guessing game
AU - Hahn, Paul
AU - Goswami, Indranil
AU - Mela, Carl F.
PY - 2015/1/1
Y1 - 2015/1/1
N2 - The p-beauty contest is a multi-player number guessing game that is widely used to study strategic behavior. Using new data from a speciallydesigned web experiment, we examine the evidence in favor of a popular class of behavioral economic models called k-step thinking models. After fitting a custom Bayesian spline model to the experimental data, we estimate that the proportion of players who could be using a k-step thinking strategy is approximately 25%.
AB - The p-beauty contest is a multi-player number guessing game that is widely used to study strategic behavior. Using new data from a speciallydesigned web experiment, we examine the evidence in favor of a popular class of behavioral economic models called k-step thinking models. After fitting a custom Bayesian spline model to the experimental data, we estimate that the proportion of players who could be using a k-step thinking strategy is approximately 25%.
KW - Behavioral game theory
KW - Hierarchical modeling
KW - Partial identification
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84946549789&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84946549789&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1214/15-AOAS830
DO - 10.1214/15-AOAS830
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84946549789
VL - 9
SP - 1459
EP - 1483
JO - Annals of Applied Statistics
JF - Annals of Applied Statistics
SN - 1932-6157
IS - 3
ER -