A bayesian hierarchical model for inferring player strategy types in a number guessing game

P. Richard Hahn; Indranil Goswami; Carl F. Mela

doi:10.1214/15-AOAS830

A bayesian hierarchical model for inferring player strategy types in a number guessing game

P. Richard Hahn, Indranil Goswami, Carl F. Mela

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

The p-beauty contest is a multi-player number guessing game that is widely used to study strategic behavior. Using new data from a speciallydesigned web experiment, we examine the evidence in favor of a popular class of behavioral economic models called k-step thinking models. After fitting a custom Bayesian spline model to the experimental data, we estimate that the proportion of players who could be using a k-step thinking strategy is approximately 25%.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	1459-1483
Number of pages	25
Journal	Annals of Applied Statistics
Volume	9
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1214/15-AOAS830
State	Published - Sep 2015
Externally published	Yes

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Keywords

Behavioral game theory
Hierarchical modeling
Partial identification

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Statistics and Probability
Modeling and Simulation
Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty

Cite this

Hahn, P. R., Goswami, I., & Mela, C. F. (2015). A bayesian hierarchical model for inferring player strategy types in a number guessing game. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(3), 1459-1483. https://doi.org/10.1214/15-AOAS830

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Access to Document

10.1214/15-AOAS830