A bayesian hierarchical model for inferring player strategy types in a number guessing game

P. Richard Hahn, Indranil Goswami, Carl F. Mela

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Scopus citations


The p-beauty contest is a multi-player number guessing game that is widely used to study strategic behavior. Using new data from a speciallydesigned web experiment, we examine the evidence in favor of a popular class of behavioral economic models called k-step thinking models. After fitting a custom Bayesian spline model to the experimental data, we estimate that the proportion of players who could be using a k-step thinking strategy is approximately 25%.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1459-1483
Number of pages25
JournalAnnals of Applied Statistics
Issue number3
StatePublished - Sep 2015
Externally publishedYes



  • Behavioral game theory
  • Hierarchical modeling
  • Partial identification

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty

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