A bayesian hierarchical model for inferring player strategy types in a number guessing game

Paul Hahn, Indranil Goswami, Carl F. Mela

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The p-beauty contest is a multi-player number guessing game that is widely used to study strategic behavior. Using new data from a speciallydesigned web experiment, we examine the evidence in favor of a popular class of behavioral economic models called k-step thinking models. After fitting a custom Bayesian spline model to the experimental data, we estimate that the proportion of players who could be using a k-step thinking strategy is approximately 25%.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1459-1483
Number of pages25
JournalAnnals of Applied Statistics
Volume9
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2015
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Bayesian Hierarchical Model
Game
Economic Model
Spline
Proportion
Experimental Data
Splines
Model
Estimate
Experiment
Economics
Strategy
Bayesian hierarchical model
Experiments
Evidence
Class
Contests
World Wide Web
Strategic behavior

Keywords

  • Behavioral game theory
  • Hierarchical modeling
  • Partial identification

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty

Cite this

A bayesian hierarchical model for inferring player strategy types in a number guessing game. / Hahn, Paul; Goswami, Indranil; Mela, Carl F.

In: Annals of Applied Statistics, Vol. 9, No. 3, 01.01.2015, p. 1459-1483.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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