Worldwide mortality in men and women aged 15-59 years from 1970 to 2010: a systematic analysis

Julie Knoll Rajaratnam, Jake R. Marcus, Alison Levin-Rector, Andrew N. Chalupka, Haidong Wang, Laura Dwyer, Megan Costa, Alan D. Lopez, Christopher JL Murray

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

118 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Adult deaths are a crucial priority for global health. Causes of adult death are important components of Millennium Development Goals 5 and 6. However, adult mortality has received little policy attention, resources, or monitoring efforts. This study aimed to estimate worldwide mortality in men and women aged 15-59 years. Methods: We compiled a database of 3889 measurements of adult mortality for 187 countries from 1970 to 2010 using vital registration data and census and survey data for deaths in the household corrected for completeness, and sibling history data from surveys corrected for survival bias. We used Gaussian process regression to generate yearly estimates of the probability of death between the ages of 15 years and 60 years (45q15) for men and women for every country with uncertainty intervals that indicate sampling and non-sampling error. We showed that these analytical methods have good predictive validity for countries with missing data. Findings: Adult mortality varied substantially across countries and over time. In 2010, the countries with the lowest risk of mortality for men and women are Iceland and Cyprus, respectively. In Iceland, male 45q15 is 65 (uncertainty interval 61-69) per 1000; in Cyprus, female 45q15 is 38 (36-41) per 1000. Highest risk of mortality in 2010 is seen in Swaziland for men (45q15 of 765 [692-845] per 1000) and Zambia for women (606 [518-708] per 1000). Between 1970 and 2010, substantial increases in adult mortality occurred in sub-Saharan Africa because of the HIV epidemic and in countries in or related to the former Soviet Union. Other regional trends were also seen, such as stagnation in the decline of adult mortality for large countries in southeast Asia and a striking decline in female mortality in south Asia. Interpretation: The prevention of premature adult death is just as important for global health policy as the improvement of child survival. Routine monitoring of adult mortality should be given much greater emphasis. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1704-1720
Number of pages17
JournalThe Lancet
Volume375
Issue number9727
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 29 2010
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Mortality
Cyprus
Iceland
Uncertainty
Swaziland
Zambia
Southeastern Asia
Premature Mortality
Survival
USSR
Africa South of the Sahara
Censuses
Health Policy
Siblings
Cause of Death
HIV
Databases

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

Rajaratnam, J. K., Marcus, J. R., Levin-Rector, A., Chalupka, A. N., Wang, H., Dwyer, L., ... Murray, C. JL. (2010). Worldwide mortality in men and women aged 15-59 years from 1970 to 2010: a systematic analysis. The Lancet, 375(9727), 1704-1720. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(10)60517-X

Worldwide mortality in men and women aged 15-59 years from 1970 to 2010 : a systematic analysis. / Rajaratnam, Julie Knoll; Marcus, Jake R.; Levin-Rector, Alison; Chalupka, Andrew N.; Wang, Haidong; Dwyer, Laura; Costa, Megan; Lopez, Alan D.; Murray, Christopher JL.

In: The Lancet, Vol. 375, No. 9727, 29.04.2010, p. 1704-1720.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Rajaratnam, JK, Marcus, JR, Levin-Rector, A, Chalupka, AN, Wang, H, Dwyer, L, Costa, M, Lopez, AD & Murray, CJL 2010, 'Worldwide mortality in men and women aged 15-59 years from 1970 to 2010: a systematic analysis', The Lancet, vol. 375, no. 9727, pp. 1704-1720. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(10)60517-X
Rajaratnam JK, Marcus JR, Levin-Rector A, Chalupka AN, Wang H, Dwyer L et al. Worldwide mortality in men and women aged 15-59 years from 1970 to 2010: a systematic analysis. The Lancet. 2010 Apr 29;375(9727):1704-1720. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(10)60517-X
Rajaratnam, Julie Knoll ; Marcus, Jake R. ; Levin-Rector, Alison ; Chalupka, Andrew N. ; Wang, Haidong ; Dwyer, Laura ; Costa, Megan ; Lopez, Alan D. ; Murray, Christopher JL. / Worldwide mortality in men and women aged 15-59 years from 1970 to 2010 : a systematic analysis. In: The Lancet. 2010 ; Vol. 375, No. 9727. pp. 1704-1720.
@article{27e44ee3528a4c889cd8261531647d13,
title = "Worldwide mortality in men and women aged 15-59 years from 1970 to 2010: a systematic analysis",
abstract = "Background: Adult deaths are a crucial priority for global health. Causes of adult death are important components of Millennium Development Goals 5 and 6. However, adult mortality has received little policy attention, resources, or monitoring efforts. This study aimed to estimate worldwide mortality in men and women aged 15-59 years. Methods: We compiled a database of 3889 measurements of adult mortality for 187 countries from 1970 to 2010 using vital registration data and census and survey data for deaths in the household corrected for completeness, and sibling history data from surveys corrected for survival bias. We used Gaussian process regression to generate yearly estimates of the probability of death between the ages of 15 years and 60 years (45q15) for men and women for every country with uncertainty intervals that indicate sampling and non-sampling error. We showed that these analytical methods have good predictive validity for countries with missing data. Findings: Adult mortality varied substantially across countries and over time. In 2010, the countries with the lowest risk of mortality for men and women are Iceland and Cyprus, respectively. In Iceland, male 45q15 is 65 (uncertainty interval 61-69) per 1000; in Cyprus, female 45q15 is 38 (36-41) per 1000. Highest risk of mortality in 2010 is seen in Swaziland for men (45q15 of 765 [692-845] per 1000) and Zambia for women (606 [518-708] per 1000). Between 1970 and 2010, substantial increases in adult mortality occurred in sub-Saharan Africa because of the HIV epidemic and in countries in or related to the former Soviet Union. Other regional trends were also seen, such as stagnation in the decline of adult mortality for large countries in southeast Asia and a striking decline in female mortality in south Asia. Interpretation: The prevention of premature adult death is just as important for global health policy as the improvement of child survival. Routine monitoring of adult mortality should be given much greater emphasis. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.",
author = "Rajaratnam, {Julie Knoll} and Marcus, {Jake R.} and Alison Levin-Rector and Chalupka, {Andrew N.} and Haidong Wang and Laura Dwyer and Megan Costa and Lopez, {Alan D.} and Murray, {Christopher JL}",
year = "2010",
month = "4",
day = "29",
doi = "10.1016/S0140-6736(10)60517-X",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "375",
pages = "1704--1720",
journal = "The Lancet",
issn = "0140-6736",
publisher = "Elsevier Limited",
number = "9727",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Worldwide mortality in men and women aged 15-59 years from 1970 to 2010

T2 - a systematic analysis

AU - Rajaratnam, Julie Knoll

AU - Marcus, Jake R.

AU - Levin-Rector, Alison

AU - Chalupka, Andrew N.

AU - Wang, Haidong

AU - Dwyer, Laura

AU - Costa, Megan

AU - Lopez, Alan D.

AU - Murray, Christopher JL

PY - 2010/4/29

Y1 - 2010/4/29

N2 - Background: Adult deaths are a crucial priority for global health. Causes of adult death are important components of Millennium Development Goals 5 and 6. However, adult mortality has received little policy attention, resources, or monitoring efforts. This study aimed to estimate worldwide mortality in men and women aged 15-59 years. Methods: We compiled a database of 3889 measurements of adult mortality for 187 countries from 1970 to 2010 using vital registration data and census and survey data for deaths in the household corrected for completeness, and sibling history data from surveys corrected for survival bias. We used Gaussian process regression to generate yearly estimates of the probability of death between the ages of 15 years and 60 years (45q15) for men and women for every country with uncertainty intervals that indicate sampling and non-sampling error. We showed that these analytical methods have good predictive validity for countries with missing data. Findings: Adult mortality varied substantially across countries and over time. In 2010, the countries with the lowest risk of mortality for men and women are Iceland and Cyprus, respectively. In Iceland, male 45q15 is 65 (uncertainty interval 61-69) per 1000; in Cyprus, female 45q15 is 38 (36-41) per 1000. Highest risk of mortality in 2010 is seen in Swaziland for men (45q15 of 765 [692-845] per 1000) and Zambia for women (606 [518-708] per 1000). Between 1970 and 2010, substantial increases in adult mortality occurred in sub-Saharan Africa because of the HIV epidemic and in countries in or related to the former Soviet Union. Other regional trends were also seen, such as stagnation in the decline of adult mortality for large countries in southeast Asia and a striking decline in female mortality in south Asia. Interpretation: The prevention of premature adult death is just as important for global health policy as the improvement of child survival. Routine monitoring of adult mortality should be given much greater emphasis. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

AB - Background: Adult deaths are a crucial priority for global health. Causes of adult death are important components of Millennium Development Goals 5 and 6. However, adult mortality has received little policy attention, resources, or monitoring efforts. This study aimed to estimate worldwide mortality in men and women aged 15-59 years. Methods: We compiled a database of 3889 measurements of adult mortality for 187 countries from 1970 to 2010 using vital registration data and census and survey data for deaths in the household corrected for completeness, and sibling history data from surveys corrected for survival bias. We used Gaussian process regression to generate yearly estimates of the probability of death between the ages of 15 years and 60 years (45q15) for men and women for every country with uncertainty intervals that indicate sampling and non-sampling error. We showed that these analytical methods have good predictive validity for countries with missing data. Findings: Adult mortality varied substantially across countries and over time. In 2010, the countries with the lowest risk of mortality for men and women are Iceland and Cyprus, respectively. In Iceland, male 45q15 is 65 (uncertainty interval 61-69) per 1000; in Cyprus, female 45q15 is 38 (36-41) per 1000. Highest risk of mortality in 2010 is seen in Swaziland for men (45q15 of 765 [692-845] per 1000) and Zambia for women (606 [518-708] per 1000). Between 1970 and 2010, substantial increases in adult mortality occurred in sub-Saharan Africa because of the HIV epidemic and in countries in or related to the former Soviet Union. Other regional trends were also seen, such as stagnation in the decline of adult mortality for large countries in southeast Asia and a striking decline in female mortality in south Asia. Interpretation: The prevention of premature adult death is just as important for global health policy as the improvement of child survival. Routine monitoring of adult mortality should be given much greater emphasis. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=77952238030&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=77952238030&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)60517-X

DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)60517-X

M3 - Article

C2 - 20434763

AN - SCOPUS:77952238030

VL - 375

SP - 1704

EP - 1720

JO - The Lancet

JF - The Lancet

SN - 0140-6736

IS - 9727

ER -