Water portfolio scenario analysis for Mesa, Arizona

T. Lant, G. Yamout, V. Escobar

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

This paper presents a prototype decision support system (DSS) that can be used to analyze municipal water portfolios using science-based climate models and regional scale urbanization scenarios. We present a system dynamics (SD) DSS, loosely coupled with a geographic information system (GIS) for water portfolio scenario analysis for Mesa, Arizona. The application demonstrates a multi-scale, modular, spatial framework for downscaling a regional dynamic water budget to the specific water portfolio of the City of Mesa. Climate change, population growth, surface water allocations, and groundwater supplies are calculated from WaterSim, a regional DSS developed at the Decision Center for a Desert City at Arizona State University; Mesa's specific water portfolios are generated via a portfolio module that extends the WaterSim framework to include city-scale demands, conservation estimates, "water-banking" credits, and multi-institutional constraints. The portfolio module connects a regional supply module to local and regional demand modules so that meaningful, scenario-based exploration of the city's water assets can be examined for adequacy and risk of shortages. In particular, conditions of drought, climate change, population growth, urbanization, and land-use change are simulated to reveal robust portfolio allocations that can better guarantee adequate water supplies with low cost and low risk of shortage under a broad range of conditions. Our scenario framework classifies scenario models into exogenous factors, policy options, and outcome metrics to systematically assess the key sensitivities of Mesa's water supply portfolio.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2008
Subtitle of host publicationAhupua'a - Proceedings of the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2008
DOIs
StatePublished - 2008
EventWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2008: Ahupua'a - Honolulu, HI, United States
Duration: May 12 2008May 16 2008

Publication series

NameWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2008: Ahupua'a - Proceedings of the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2008
Volume316

Other

OtherWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2008: Ahupua'a
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityHonolulu, HI
Period5/12/085/16/08

Keywords

  • Arizona
  • Decision support systems
  • Water management

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Pollution

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