TY - GEN
T1 - Water portfolio scenario analysis for Mesa, Arizona
AU - Lant, T.
AU - Yamout, G.
AU - Escobar, V.
PY - 2008
Y1 - 2008
N2 - This paper presents a prototype decision support system (DSS) that can be used to analyze municipal water portfolios using science-based climate models and regional scale urbanization scenarios. We present a system dynamics (SD) DSS, loosely coupled with a geographic information system (GIS) for water portfolio scenario analysis for Mesa, Arizona. The application demonstrates a multi-scale, modular, spatial framework for downscaling a regional dynamic water budget to the specific water portfolio of the City of Mesa. Climate change, population growth, surface water allocations, and groundwater supplies are calculated from WaterSim, a regional DSS developed at the Decision Center for a Desert City at Arizona State University; Mesa's specific water portfolios are generated via a portfolio module that extends the WaterSim framework to include city-scale demands, conservation estimates, "water-banking" credits, and multi-institutional constraints. The portfolio module connects a regional supply module to local and regional demand modules so that meaningful, scenario-based exploration of the city's water assets can be examined for adequacy and risk of shortages. In particular, conditions of drought, climate change, population growth, urbanization, and land-use change are simulated to reveal robust portfolio allocations that can better guarantee adequate water supplies with low cost and low risk of shortage under a broad range of conditions. Our scenario framework classifies scenario models into exogenous factors, policy options, and outcome metrics to systematically assess the key sensitivities of Mesa's water supply portfolio.
AB - This paper presents a prototype decision support system (DSS) that can be used to analyze municipal water portfolios using science-based climate models and regional scale urbanization scenarios. We present a system dynamics (SD) DSS, loosely coupled with a geographic information system (GIS) for water portfolio scenario analysis for Mesa, Arizona. The application demonstrates a multi-scale, modular, spatial framework for downscaling a regional dynamic water budget to the specific water portfolio of the City of Mesa. Climate change, population growth, surface water allocations, and groundwater supplies are calculated from WaterSim, a regional DSS developed at the Decision Center for a Desert City at Arizona State University; Mesa's specific water portfolios are generated via a portfolio module that extends the WaterSim framework to include city-scale demands, conservation estimates, "water-banking" credits, and multi-institutional constraints. The portfolio module connects a regional supply module to local and regional demand modules so that meaningful, scenario-based exploration of the city's water assets can be examined for adequacy and risk of shortages. In particular, conditions of drought, climate change, population growth, urbanization, and land-use change are simulated to reveal robust portfolio allocations that can better guarantee adequate water supplies with low cost and low risk of shortage under a broad range of conditions. Our scenario framework classifies scenario models into exogenous factors, policy options, and outcome metrics to systematically assess the key sensitivities of Mesa's water supply portfolio.
KW - Arizona
KW - Decision support systems
KW - Water management
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=79251518905&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=79251518905&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1061/40976(316)26
DO - 10.1061/40976(316)26
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:79251518905
SN - 9780784409763
T3 - World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2008: Ahupua'a - Proceedings of the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2008
BT - World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2008
T2 - World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2008: Ahupua'a
Y2 - 12 May 2008 through 16 May 2008
ER -