Using the Bootstrap method to determine uncertainty bounds for change point utility bill energy models

James Clay Tyler, T Agami Reddy

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Statistical inverse modeling of energy use in buildings and of HVAC&R equipment and systems has been widely researched, and are fairly well ingrained in the profession. However, there are still a few nagging issues; one of them is related to the accuracy in estimating model prediction uncertainty bands at a pre-specified confidence level. This issue is important since it bears directly on the risk associated with the identified energy savings. While several papers have been published dealing with uncertainty in statistical models, the non-heteroscedascity and the non-gaussian behavior of the residuals are problematic to handle using classical statistical equations of model prediction uncertainty. This paper proposes and illustrates the use of the Bootstrap method as a robust and flexible alternative approach to determining uncertainty bands for change point model predictions identified from utility bills. In essence, the bootstrap method works by taking a data set and resampling it with replacement. In the case of utility bill analysis, one starts with 12 data points representing energy use for each month of the year. Such samples are repeatedly generated to produce a large (say, m) number of synthetic data sets from which m different change point models can be identified. These m models are used to make predictions at any pre-specified outdoor temperature, and the 95% (or any other) prediction interval bands can be determined non-parametrically from the m data predictions. This paper fully describes and illustrates this approach along with a case study example.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationEmerging Technologies
PublisherAmerican Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
ISBN (Print)9780791856406
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2013
EventASME 2013 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, IMECE 2013 - San Diego, CA, United States
Duration: Nov 15 2013Nov 21 2013

Publication series

NameASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, Proceedings (IMECE)
Volume11

Other

OtherASME 2013 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, IMECE 2013
CountryUnited States
CitySan Diego, CA
Period11/15/1311/21/13

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Mechanical Engineering

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