Using Mixture Design Data and Existing Prediction Models to Evaluate the Potential Performance of Asphalt Pavements

The objective of this study was to develop a simplified process and tool to assess the potential performance of Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) mixtures in terms of rutting, fatigue, and thermal cracking, using only asphalt mix design information and volumetric data. Recent HMA mixture design data was collected from 25 states within the US and then compared to equivalent historical data available in the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) database for highways. The data was separated according to the four climatic regions within the LTPP and performance was assessed using existing predictive models. Three predictive models were used in the evaluation and comparison process. Then, four ranking criteria were developed to support the evaluation of the mix designs quality: Low, Satisfactory, Good, or Excellent. The evaluation results were reasonable based on the predictive models' findings and the performance found in the LTPP. Out of the 48 HMA mixture designs studied, the majority were ranked either Satisfactory or Good. The overall results showed that state agencies have changed their mix designs over the years for the better, especially when considering fatigue cracking and rutting resistance. The methodology and criteria developed in this study are intended to be used as support tools in determining the quality of asphalt mixtures accepted by state agencies or local governments. They provide a quick insight on the needed improvement/modification against the potential development of distress during the lifespan of the pavement structure.