TY - JOUR
T1 - Urban adaptation can roll back warming of emerging megapolitan regions
AU - Georgescu, Matei
AU - Morefield, Philip E.
AU - Bierwagen, Britta G.
AU - Weaver, Christopher P.
N1 - Copyright:
Copyright 2014 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2014/2/25
Y1 - 2014/2/25
N2 - Modeling results incorporating several distinct urban expansion futures for the United States in 2100 show that, in the absence of any adaptive urban design, megapolitan expansion, alone and separate from greenhouse gas-induced forcing, can be expected to raise near-surface temperatures 1-2°C not just at the scale of individual cities but over large regional swaths of the country. This warming is a significant fraction of the 21st century greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated by global climate models. Using a suite of regional climate simulations, we assessed the efficacy of commonly proposed urban adaptation strategies, such as green, cool roof, and hybrid approaches, to ameliorate the warming. Our results quantify how judicious choices in urban planning and design cannot only counteract the climatological impacts of the urban expansion itself but also, can, in fact, even offset a significant percentage of future greenhouse warming over large scales. Our results also reveal tradeoffs among different adaptation options for some regions, showing the need for geographically appropriate strategies rather than one size fits all solutions.
AB - Modeling results incorporating several distinct urban expansion futures for the United States in 2100 show that, in the absence of any adaptive urban design, megapolitan expansion, alone and separate from greenhouse gas-induced forcing, can be expected to raise near-surface temperatures 1-2°C not just at the scale of individual cities but over large regional swaths of the country. This warming is a significant fraction of the 21st century greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated by global climate models. Using a suite of regional climate simulations, we assessed the efficacy of commonly proposed urban adaptation strategies, such as green, cool roof, and hybrid approaches, to ameliorate the warming. Our results quantify how judicious choices in urban planning and design cannot only counteract the climatological impacts of the urban expansion itself but also, can, in fact, even offset a significant percentage of future greenhouse warming over large scales. Our results also reveal tradeoffs among different adaptation options for some regions, showing the need for geographically appropriate strategies rather than one size fits all solutions.
KW - Land-use change
KW - Mitigation
KW - Sustainability
KW - Urban climate
KW - Urbanization
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84896875807&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84896875807&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1073/pnas.1322280111
DO - 10.1073/pnas.1322280111
M3 - Article
C2 - 24516126
AN - SCOPUS:84896875807
SN - 0027-8424
VL - 111
SP - 2909
EP - 2914
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
IS - 8
ER -