Uncertainty of 'measured' energy savings from statistical baseline models

T Agami Reddy, David E. Claridge

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Abstract

Baseline models are a crucial element in determining savings from energy conserving measures. The baseline model is obtained by regressing the energy consumption data for the period prior to the implementation of the energy conservation measures. The widely used criteria for determining adequacy of a particular baseline model is based on statistical cutoff criteria that do not give the user a knowledge of the error inherent in the savings determination. The absolute cutoff criteria may not be appropriate since baseline model development is not the desired end. It is proposed that models be evaluated in terms of the ratio of the expected uncertainty in the savings to the total savings (ΔE save/E save). This physically and financially intuitive measure permits the user to vary the criteria according to factors most relevant for a particular energy conservation project. Simplified expressions for (ΔE save/E save) appropriate for use by practitioners as applicable for cases with uncorrelated data and for use with correlated time series data are developed and discussed in the context of case-study data. The use of this concept to logically select the most appropriate measurement and verification protocol to verify savings is also described.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationASHRAE Transactions
PublisherASHRAE
Volume106
StatePublished - 2000
Externally publishedYes
Event2000 Annual Meeting of the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineerings, INC - Minneapolis, MN, USA
Duration: Jun 25 2000Jun 28 2000

Other

Other2000 Annual Meeting of the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineerings, INC
CityMinneapolis, MN, USA
Period6/25/006/28/00

Fingerprint

Energy conservation
Time series
Energy utilization
Uncertainty
Statistical Models
Network protocols

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Fluid Flow and Transfer Processes

Cite this

Reddy, T. A., & Claridge, D. E. (2000). Uncertainty of 'measured' energy savings from statistical baseline models. In ASHRAE Transactions (Vol. 106). ASHRAE.

Uncertainty of 'measured' energy savings from statistical baseline models. / Reddy, T Agami; Claridge, David E.

ASHRAE Transactions. Vol. 106 ASHRAE, 2000.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Reddy, TA & Claridge, DE 2000, Uncertainty of 'measured' energy savings from statistical baseline models. in ASHRAE Transactions. vol. 106, ASHRAE, 2000 Annual Meeting of the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineerings, INC, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 6/25/00.
Reddy TA, Claridge DE. Uncertainty of 'measured' energy savings from statistical baseline models. In ASHRAE Transactions. Vol. 106. ASHRAE. 2000
Reddy, T Agami ; Claridge, David E. / Uncertainty of 'measured' energy savings from statistical baseline models. ASHRAE Transactions. Vol. 106 ASHRAE, 2000.
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