Uncertainty and risk analyses for FEMA alluvial fan method

Bing Zhao, Larry Mays

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Alluvial fans along mountain bases pose interesting problems for highway crossings design and flood insurance studies. In this paper, Rosenblueth's point-estimate is applied to the FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) alluvial fan method to compute the mean and standard deviation for the 100-year discharge at any point on the fan and the mean and standard deviation for the fan arc width. The mean and standard deviations for the 100-year discharge are used to obtain the risk that the 100-year discharge will exceed the discharge capacity of hydraulic structures. The mean and standard deviations for the fan arc width are used to estimate the risk that a given location on the fan is within the hazard flood zone. The HEC-1 rainfall-runoff computer model is used to compute inputs to the FEMA method. The proposed methodology is applied to an alluvial fan in north Scottsdale, Arizona.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationRisk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources, Proceedings of the Conference
Place of PublicationNew York, NY, United States
PublisherASCE
Pages180-190
Number of pages11
StatePublished - 1996
EventProceedings of the 1995 7th Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources - Santa Barbara, CA, USA
Duration: Oct 8 1995Oct 13 1995

Other

OtherProceedings of the 1995 7th Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources
CitySanta Barbara, CA, USA
Period10/8/9510/13/95

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
  • Environmental Science(all)

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