Towards a hybrid agent-based model for mosquito borne disease

S. M. Mniszewski, C. A. Manore, C. Bryan, S. Y. Del Valle, D. Roberts

Research output: Contribution to journalConference article

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

Agent-based models (ABM) are used to simulate the spread of infectious disease through a population. Detailed human movement, demography, realistic business location networks, and in-host disease progression are available in existing ABMs, such as the Epidemic Simulation System (EpiSimS). These capabilities make possible the exploration of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation strategies used to inform the public health community. There is a similar need for the spread of mosquito borne pathogens due to the re-emergence of diseases such as Chikungunya and dengue fever. A network-patch model for mosquito dynamics has been coupled with EpiSimS. Mosquitoes are represented as a "patch" or "cloud" associated with a location. Each patch has an ordinary differential equation (ODE) mosquito dynamics model and mosquito related parameters relevant to the location characteristics. Activities at each location can have different levels of potential exposure to mosquitoes based on whether they are inside, outside, or somewhere in-between. As a proof of concept, the hybrid network-patch model is used to simulate the spread of Chikungunya through Washington, DC. Results are shown for a base case, followed by varying the probability of transmission, mosquito count, and activity exposure. We use visualization to understand the pattern of disease spread.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)66-73
Number of pages8
JournalSimulation Series
Volume46
Issue number10
StatePublished - Jan 1 2014
Externally publishedYes
EventSummer Computer Simulation Conference, SCSC 2014, Part of the 2014 Summer Simulation Multiconference, SummerSim 2014 - Monterey, United States
Duration: Jul 6 2014Jul 10 2014

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Keywords

  • Agent-based modeling
  • Discrete event simulation
  • Epidemic modeling
  • Mathematical modeling
  • Mosquito borne disease modeling

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Networks and Communications

Cite this

Mniszewski, S. M., Manore, C. A., Bryan, C., Del Valle, S. Y., & Roberts, D. (2014). Towards a hybrid agent-based model for mosquito borne disease. Simulation Series, 46(10), 66-73.