Time-dependent reliability analysis using efficient Bayesian method

Xuefei Guan; Jingjing He; Ratneshwar Jha; Yongming Liu

doi:10.2514/6.2012-1593

Time-dependent reliability analysis using efficient Bayesian method

Xuefei Guan, Jingjing He, Ratneshwar Jha, Yongming Liu

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

Abstract

The paper presents an efficient method for time-dependent reliability analysis. Proba- bilistic modeling is used to quantify uncertainties and additional information is incorporated using Bayes theorem to perform various updating and reduce inference uncertainty. To im- prove the computational efficiency, Laplace approximation and inverse reliability methods are proposed to evaluate the Bayesian posterior distributions and reliability responses, respectively. A numerical example and and fatigue reliability application are presented to demonstrate the overall methodology. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method is compared with traditional simulation-based method.

Original language	English (US)
Title of host publication	53rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference 2012
Publisher	American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Inc.
ISBN (Print)	9781600869372
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2012-1593
State	Published - 2012
Externally published	Yes
Event	53rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference 2012 - Honolulu, HI, United States Duration: Apr 23 2012 → Apr 26 2012

Publication series

Name	53rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference 2012

Other

Other	53rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference 2012
Country/Territory	United States
City	Honolulu, HI
Period	4/23/12 → 4/26/12

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Aerospace Engineering
Mechanical Engineering
General Materials Science
Surfaces and Interfaces

Access to Document

10.2514/6.2012-1593

Cite this

Guan, X., He, J., Jha, R., & Liu, Y. (2012). Time-dependent reliability analysis using efficient Bayesian method. In 53rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference 2012 (53rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference 2012). American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Inc.. https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2012-1593

Time-dependent reliability analysis using efficient Bayesian method. / Guan, Xuefei; He, Jingjing; Jha, Ratneshwar et al.
53rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference 2012. American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Inc., 2012. (53rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference 2012).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

Guan, X, He, J, Jha, R & Liu, Y 2012, Time-dependent reliability analysis using efficient Bayesian method. in 53rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference 2012. 53rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference 2012, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Inc., 53rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference 2012, Honolulu, HI, United States, 4/23/12. https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2012-1593

Guan X, He J, Jha R, Liu Y. Time-dependent reliability analysis using efficient Bayesian method. In 53rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference 2012. American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Inc. 2012. (53rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference 2012). doi: 10.2514/6.2012-1593

Guan, Xuefei ; He, Jingjing ; Jha, Ratneshwar et al. / Time-dependent reliability analysis using efficient Bayesian method. 53rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference 2012. American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Inc., 2012. (53rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference 2012).

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AB - The paper presents an efficient method for time-dependent reliability analysis. Proba- bilistic modeling is used to quantify uncertainties and additional information is incorporated using Bayes theorem to perform various updating and reduce inference uncertainty. To im- prove the computational efficiency, Laplace approximation and inverse reliability methods are proposed to evaluate the Bayesian posterior distributions and reliability responses, respectively. A numerical example and and fatigue reliability application are presented to demonstrate the overall methodology. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method is compared with traditional simulation-based method.

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Time-dependent reliability analysis using efficient Bayesian method

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