Time-dependent reliability analysis using efficient bayesian method

Xuefei Guan; Jingjing He; Ratneshwar Jha; Yongming Liu

Time-dependent reliability analysis using efficient bayesian method

Xuefei Guan, Jingjing He, Ratneshwar Jha, Yongming Liu

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

Abstract

The paper presents an efficient method for time-dependent reliability analysis. Proba- bilistic modeling is used to quantify uncertainties and additional information is incorporated using Bayes theorem to perform various updating and reduce inference uncertainty. To im- prove the computational efficiency, Laplace approximation and inverse reliability methods are proposed to evaluate the Bayesian posterior distributions and reliability responses, respectively. A numerical example and and fatigue reliability application are presented to demonstrate the overall methodology. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method is compared with traditional simulation-based method.

Original language	English (US)
Title of host publication	53rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference
State	Published - Dec 1 2012
Externally published	Yes
Event	53rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference - Honolulu, HI, United States Duration: Apr 23 2012 → Apr 26 2012

Publication series

Name	Collection of Technical Papers - AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference
ISSN (Print)	0273-4508

Other

Other	53rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference
Country/Territory	United States
City	Honolulu, HI
Period	4/23/12 → 4/26/12

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Architecture
Materials Science(all)
Aerospace Engineering
Mechanics of Materials
Mechanical Engineering

Cite this

Time-dependent reliability analysis using efficient bayesian method. / Guan, Xuefei; He, Jingjing; Jha, Ratneshwar et al.

53rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference. 2012. AIAA 2012-1593 (Collection of Technical Papers - AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

Guan, X, He, J, Jha, R & Liu, Y 2012, Time-dependent reliability analysis using efficient bayesian method. in 53rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference., AIAA 2012-1593, Collection of Technical Papers - AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference, 53rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference, Honolulu, HI, United States, 4/23/12.

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AB - The paper presents an efficient method for time-dependent reliability analysis. Proba- bilistic modeling is used to quantify uncertainties and additional information is incorporated using Bayes theorem to perform various updating and reduce inference uncertainty. To im- prove the computational efficiency, Laplace approximation and inverse reliability methods are proposed to evaluate the Bayesian posterior distributions and reliability responses, respectively. A numerical example and and fatigue reliability application are presented to demonstrate the overall methodology. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method is compared with traditional simulation-based method.

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M3 - Conference contribution

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ER -

Time-dependent reliability analysis using efficient bayesian method

Abstract

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Other

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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