The predictability index-a novel project performance metric to assess the early prediction of cost and time outcomes

David Grau Torrent, W. Edward Back, Amin Abbaszadegan, Rick Sirven

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

7 Scopus citations

Abstract

As a departure from the current state of practice, this study proposes to evaluate cost and schedule performance based on the early and accurate prediction of final outcomes, as opposed to the prevalent and reactive evaluation of final cost and schedule deviations at completion. Getting to know early in the delivery process the actual outcomes of a project enables project and corporate managers to undertake informed and proactive actions in a timely manner. To enable the assessment of predictability performance, a novel predictability index metric is proposed, investigated, and discussed. Based on the statistical analysis of data for 135 completed projects representing $29 billion in total installed costs, the predictability index measure is characterized and the major influencing factors on project predictability performance are unveiled. Also, actual case studies are discussed to illustrate the tangible benefits associated with the assessment of predictability performance to the project delivery process.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationConstruction Research Congress 2014
Subtitle of host publicationConstruction in a Global Network - Proceedings of the 2014 Construction Research Congress
PublisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
Pages2306-2314
Number of pages9
ISBN (Print)9780784413517
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2014
Event2014 Construction Research Congress: Construction in a Global Network, CRC 2014 - Atlanta, GA, United States
Duration: May 19 2014May 21 2014

Publication series

NameConstruction Research Congress 2014: Construction in a Global Network - Proceedings of the 2014 Construction Research Congress

Other

Other2014 Construction Research Congress: Construction in a Global Network, CRC 2014
CountryUnited States
CityAtlanta, GA
Period5/19/145/21/14

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ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Building and Construction

Cite this

Grau Torrent, D., Back, W. E., Abbaszadegan, A., & Sirven, R. (2014). The predictability index-a novel project performance metric to assess the early prediction of cost and time outcomes. In Construction Research Congress 2014: Construction in a Global Network - Proceedings of the 2014 Construction Research Congress (pp. 2306-2314). (Construction Research Congress 2014: Construction in a Global Network - Proceedings of the 2014 Construction Research Congress). American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784413517.0234