TY - JOUR
T1 - The motley drivers of heat and cold exposure in 21st century US cities
AU - Broadbent, Ashley Mark
AU - Krayenhoff, Eric Scott
AU - Georgescu, Matei
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was supported by NSF Sustainability Research Network Cooperative Agreement 1444758, the Urban Water Innovation Network, and NSF Grant SES-1520803. We acknowledge support from Research Computing at Arizona State University for the provision of high-performance supercomputing services. Additionally, we thank the three anonymous referees for helpful and constructive comments.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
PY - 2020/9/1
Y1 - 2020/9/1
N2 - We use a suite of decadal-length regional climate simulations to quantify potential changes in population-weighted heat and cold exposure in 47 US metropolitan regions during the 21st century. Our results show that population-weighted exposure to locally defined extreme heat (i.e., "population heat exposure") would increase by a factor of 12.7-29.5 under a high-intensity greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and urban development pathway. Additionally, end -of-century population cold exposure is projected to rise by a factor of 1.3-2.2, relative to start-of-century population cold exposure. We identify specific metropolitan regions in which population heat exposure would increase most markedly and characterize the relative significance of various drivers responsible for this increase. The largest absolute changes in population heat exposure during the 21st century are projected to occur in major US metropolitan regions like New York City (NY), Los Angeles (CA), Atlanta (GA), and Washington DC. The largest relative changes in population heat exposure (i.e., changes relative to start-of-century) are projected to occur in rapidly growing cities across the US Sunbelt, for example Orlando (FL), Austin (TX), Miami (FL), and Atlanta. The surge in population heat exposure across the Sunbelt is driven by concurrent GHGinduced warming and population growth which, in tandem, could strongly compound population heat exposure. Our simulations provide initial guidance to inform the prioritization of urban climate adaptation measures and policy.
AB - We use a suite of decadal-length regional climate simulations to quantify potential changes in population-weighted heat and cold exposure in 47 US metropolitan regions during the 21st century. Our results show that population-weighted exposure to locally defined extreme heat (i.e., "population heat exposure") would increase by a factor of 12.7-29.5 under a high-intensity greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and urban development pathway. Additionally, end -of-century population cold exposure is projected to rise by a factor of 1.3-2.2, relative to start-of-century population cold exposure. We identify specific metropolitan regions in which population heat exposure would increase most markedly and characterize the relative significance of various drivers responsible for this increase. The largest absolute changes in population heat exposure during the 21st century are projected to occur in major US metropolitan regions like New York City (NY), Los Angeles (CA), Atlanta (GA), and Washington DC. The largest relative changes in population heat exposure (i.e., changes relative to start-of-century) are projected to occur in rapidly growing cities across the US Sunbelt, for example Orlando (FL), Austin (TX), Miami (FL), and Atlanta. The surge in population heat exposure across the Sunbelt is driven by concurrent GHGinduced warming and population growth which, in tandem, could strongly compound population heat exposure. Our simulations provide initial guidance to inform the prioritization of urban climate adaptation measures and policy.
KW - Climate adaptation
KW - Climate change
KW - Cold exposure
KW - Heat exposure
KW - Urban climate
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U2 - 10.1073/pnas.2005492117
DO - 10.1073/pnas.2005492117
M3 - Article
C2 - 32817528
AN - SCOPUS:85090505776
SN - 0027-8424
VL - 117
SP - 21108
EP - 21117
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
IS - 35
ER -