TY - JOUR
T1 - The Long-Term effects of COVID-19 on travel behavior in the United States
T2 - A panel study on work from home, mode choice, online shopping, and air travel
AU - Javadinasr, Mohammadjavad
AU - Maggasy, Tassio
AU - Mohammadi, Motahare
AU - Mohammadain, Kouros
AU - Rahimi, Ehsan
AU - Salon, Deborah
AU - Conway, Matthew W.
AU - Pendyala, Ram
AU - Derrible, Sybil
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2022/10
Y1 - 2022/10
N2 - A critical challenge facing transportation planners is to identify the type and the extent of changes in people's activity-travel behavior in the post-Covid-19 pandemic world. In this study, we investigate the travel behavior evolution by analyzing a longitudinal two-wave panel survey data conducted in the United States from April 2020 to May 2021. Encompassing nearly 3,000 respondents across different states, we explored the effects of the pandemic on four major categories of work from home, travel mode choice, online shopping, and air travel. We utilized descriptive and econometric measures, including random effects ordered probit models, to shed light on the pandemic-induced changes and the underlying factors affecting the future of mobility in the post-pandemic world. Upon concrete evidence, our findings substantiate significant observed (i.e., during the pandemic) and expected (i.e., after the pandemic) changes in people's habits and preferences. According to our results, 48% of the respondents anticipate having the option to WFH after the pandemic, which indicates an approximately 30% increase compared to the pre-pandemic period. In the post-pandemic period, auto and transit commuters are expected to be 9% and 31% less than pre-pandemic, respectively. A considerable rise in hybrid work and grocery online shopping is expected. Moreover, 41% of pre-covid business travelers expect to have fewer flights (after the pandemic) while only 8% anticipate more, compared to the pre-pandemic.
AB - A critical challenge facing transportation planners is to identify the type and the extent of changes in people's activity-travel behavior in the post-Covid-19 pandemic world. In this study, we investigate the travel behavior evolution by analyzing a longitudinal two-wave panel survey data conducted in the United States from April 2020 to May 2021. Encompassing nearly 3,000 respondents across different states, we explored the effects of the pandemic on four major categories of work from home, travel mode choice, online shopping, and air travel. We utilized descriptive and econometric measures, including random effects ordered probit models, to shed light on the pandemic-induced changes and the underlying factors affecting the future of mobility in the post-pandemic world. Upon concrete evidence, our findings substantiate significant observed (i.e., during the pandemic) and expected (i.e., after the pandemic) changes in people's habits and preferences. According to our results, 48% of the respondents anticipate having the option to WFH after the pandemic, which indicates an approximately 30% increase compared to the pre-pandemic period. In the post-pandemic period, auto and transit commuters are expected to be 9% and 31% less than pre-pandemic, respectively. A considerable rise in hybrid work and grocery online shopping is expected. Moreover, 41% of pre-covid business travelers expect to have fewer flights (after the pandemic) while only 8% anticipate more, compared to the pre-pandemic.
KW - Air Travel
KW - Online Shopping
KW - Pandemic
KW - Telecommute
KW - Transit
KW - Transportation
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85138995259&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85138995259&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.trf.2022.09.019
DO - 10.1016/j.trf.2022.09.019
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85138995259
SN - 1369-8478
VL - 90
SP - 466
EP - 484
JO - Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour
JF - Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour
ER -