Abstract
From the perspective of a wide range of labor market outcomes, the recession that began in 2007 represents the deepest downturn in the postwar era. Early on, the nature of labor market adjustment displayed a notable resemblance to that observed in past severe downturns. During the latter half of 2009, however, the path of adjustment exhibited important departures from that seen during and after prior deep recessions. Recent data point to two warning signs going forward. First, the record rise in long-term unemployment may yield a persistent residue of long-term unemployed workers with weak search effectiveness. Second, conventional estimates suggest that the extension of Emergency Unemployment Compensation may have led to a modest increase in unemployment. Despite these forces, we conclude that the problems facing the U.S. labor market are unlikely to be as severe as the European unemployment problem of the 1980s.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1-48 |
| Number of pages | 48 |
| Journal | Brookings Papers on Economic Activity |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Mar 2010 |
| Externally published | Yes |
Fingerprint
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Economics and Econometrics
- Business, Management and Accounting(all)
Cite this
The labor market in the great recession. / Elsby, Michael W L; Hobijn, Bart; Sahin, Ayşegül.
In: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 1, 03.2010, p. 1-48.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - The labor market in the great recession
AU - Elsby, Michael W L
AU - Hobijn, Bart
AU - Sahin, Ayşegül
PY - 2010/3
Y1 - 2010/3
N2 - From the perspective of a wide range of labor market outcomes, the recession that began in 2007 represents the deepest downturn in the postwar era. Early on, the nature of labor market adjustment displayed a notable resemblance to that observed in past severe downturns. During the latter half of 2009, however, the path of adjustment exhibited important departures from that seen during and after prior deep recessions. Recent data point to two warning signs going forward. First, the record rise in long-term unemployment may yield a persistent residue of long-term unemployed workers with weak search effectiveness. Second, conventional estimates suggest that the extension of Emergency Unemployment Compensation may have led to a modest increase in unemployment. Despite these forces, we conclude that the problems facing the U.S. labor market are unlikely to be as severe as the European unemployment problem of the 1980s.
AB - From the perspective of a wide range of labor market outcomes, the recession that began in 2007 represents the deepest downturn in the postwar era. Early on, the nature of labor market adjustment displayed a notable resemblance to that observed in past severe downturns. During the latter half of 2009, however, the path of adjustment exhibited important departures from that seen during and after prior deep recessions. Recent data point to two warning signs going forward. First, the record rise in long-term unemployment may yield a persistent residue of long-term unemployed workers with weak search effectiveness. Second, conventional estimates suggest that the extension of Emergency Unemployment Compensation may have led to a modest increase in unemployment. Despite these forces, we conclude that the problems facing the U.S. labor market are unlikely to be as severe as the European unemployment problem of the 1980s.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=78149472053&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=78149472053&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1353/eca.2010.0001
DO - 10.1353/eca.2010.0001
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:78149472053
SP - 1
EP - 48
JO - Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
JF - Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
SN - 0007-2303
IS - 1
ER -