The Kermack-McKendrick epidemic model revisited

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

48 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The Kermack-McKendrick epidemic model of 1927 is an age of infection model, that is, a model in which the infectivity of an individual depends on the time since the individual became infective. A special case, which is formulated as a two-dimensional system of ordinary differential ordinary differential equations, has often been called the Kermack-McKendrick model. One of the products of the SARS epidemic of 2002-2003 was a variety of epidemic models including general contact rates, quarantine, and isolation. These models can be viewed as age of infection epidemic models and analyzed using the approach of the full Kermack-McKendrick model. All these models share the basic properties that there is a threshold between disappearance of the disease and an epidemic outbreak, and that an epidemic will die out without infecting the entire population.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)119-131
Number of pages13
JournalMathematical Biosciences
Volume198
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2005
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Epidemic Model
Infection
Model
Quarantine
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Two-dimensional Systems
Isolation
Disease Outbreaks
Ordinary differential equation
Die
Entire
Contact
quarantine
Ordinary differential equations
infection
pathogenicity
Population

Keywords

  • Age of infection model
  • Epidemic
  • SARS models

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Medicine(all)
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Applied Mathematics

Cite this

The Kermack-McKendrick epidemic model revisited. / Brauer, Fred.

In: Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 198, No. 2, 01.12.2005, p. 119-131.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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