TY - JOUR
T1 - The Influence of On-Premise and Off-Premise Alcohol Outlets on Reported Violent Crime in the Region of Waterloo, Ontario
T2 - Applying Bayesian Spatial Modeling to Inform Land Use Planning and Policy
AU - Quick, Matthew
AU - Law, Jane
AU - Luan, Hui
N1 - Funding Information:
The Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada supported this research [767-2013-1540]. We acknowledge the Waterloo Regional Police Service for providing crime data and the University of Waterloo Geospatial Centre for providing census and geospatial data.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
PY - 2017/9/1
Y1 - 2017/9/1
N2 - This research analyzes the association between alcohol outlets and reported violent crime at the small-area level in the Region of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. Alcohol outlets are hypothesized to be associated with high violent crime, primarily because they bring together large numbers of potential offenders and targets, and from a policy perspective, alcohol outlets are a modifiable land use risk factor that can be addressed through land use planning and policy. Results show that both on- and off-premise alcohol outlets are positively associated with reported violent crime after accounting for socioeconomic characteristics. Using small-area risk estimates resulting from Bayesian spatial regression models, map decomposition visualizes the geographic pattern of violent crime risk and the contribution of specific risk factors at the small-area scale, and violent crime hotspots are identified based on posterior probability of relative risk. Applying results to land use planning and policy, we identify small-areas that may be preferred for proposed alcohol outlets based on specific criteria such as low violent crime risk and low risk due to alcohol outlets. We also discuss how the results of this research inform law enforcement initiatives.
AB - This research analyzes the association between alcohol outlets and reported violent crime at the small-area level in the Region of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. Alcohol outlets are hypothesized to be associated with high violent crime, primarily because they bring together large numbers of potential offenders and targets, and from a policy perspective, alcohol outlets are a modifiable land use risk factor that can be addressed through land use planning and policy. Results show that both on- and off-premise alcohol outlets are positively associated with reported violent crime after accounting for socioeconomic characteristics. Using small-area risk estimates resulting from Bayesian spatial regression models, map decomposition visualizes the geographic pattern of violent crime risk and the contribution of specific risk factors at the small-area scale, and violent crime hotspots are identified based on posterior probability of relative risk. Applying results to land use planning and policy, we identify small-areas that may be preferred for proposed alcohol outlets based on specific criteria such as low violent crime risk and low risk due to alcohol outlets. We also discuss how the results of this research inform law enforcement initiatives.
KW - Alcohol outlets
KW - Bayesian spatial analysis
KW - Crime pattern theory
KW - Land use planning
KW - Violent crime
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U2 - 10.1007/s12061-016-9191-5
DO - 10.1007/s12061-016-9191-5
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85027196218
SN - 1874-463X
VL - 10
SP - 435
EP - 454
JO - Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy
JF - Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy
IS - 3
ER -