The impact of global warming on U.S. agriculture: An econometric analysis of optimal growing conditions

Wolfram Schlenker, W. Michael Hanemann, Anthony C. Fisher

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

194 Scopus citations

Abstract

We link farmland values to climatic, soil, and socioeconomic variables for U.S. counties east of the 100th meridian, the historical boundary of agriculture not primarily dependent on irrigation. Degree days, a nonlinear transformation of the climatic variables suggested by agronomic experiments as more relevant to crop yield, gives an improved fit and increased robustness. Estimated coefficients are consistent with the experimental results. The model is employed to estimate the potential impacts on farmland values for a range of recent warming scenarios. The predictions are very robust, and more than 75% of the counties in our sample show a statistically significant effect, ranging from moderate gains to large losses, with losses in the aggregate that can become quite large under scenarios involving sustained heavy use of fossil fuels.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)113-125
Number of pages13
JournalReview of Economics and Statistics
Volume88
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 1 2006

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Economics and Econometrics

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