TY - JOUR
T1 - The impact of global warming on U.S. agriculture
T2 - An econometric analysis of optimal growing conditions
AU - Schlenker, Wolfram
AU - Hanemann, W. Michael
AU - Fisher, Anthony C.
PY - 2006/2
Y1 - 2006/2
N2 - We link farmland values to climatic, soil, and socioeconomic variables for U.S. counties east of the 100th meridian, the historical boundary of agriculture not primarily dependent on irrigation. Degree days, a nonlinear transformation of the climatic variables suggested by agronomic experiments as more relevant to crop yield, gives an improved fit and increased robustness. Estimated coefficients are consistent with the experimental results. The model is employed to estimate the potential impacts on farmland values for a range of recent warming scenarios. The predictions are very robust, and more than 75% of the counties in our sample show a statistically significant effect, ranging from moderate gains to large losses, with losses in the aggregate that can become quite large under scenarios involving sustained heavy use of fossil fuels.
AB - We link farmland values to climatic, soil, and socioeconomic variables for U.S. counties east of the 100th meridian, the historical boundary of agriculture not primarily dependent on irrigation. Degree days, a nonlinear transformation of the climatic variables suggested by agronomic experiments as more relevant to crop yield, gives an improved fit and increased robustness. Estimated coefficients are consistent with the experimental results. The model is employed to estimate the potential impacts on farmland values for a range of recent warming scenarios. The predictions are very robust, and more than 75% of the counties in our sample show a statistically significant effect, ranging from moderate gains to large losses, with losses in the aggregate that can become quite large under scenarios involving sustained heavy use of fossil fuels.
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U2 - 10.1162/003465306775565684
DO - 10.1162/003465306775565684
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:32544453816
SN - 0034-6535
VL - 88
SP - 113
EP - 125
JO - Review of Economics and Statistics
JF - Review of Economics and Statistics
IS - 1
ER -