The impact of global warming on U.S. agriculture: An econometric analysis of optimal growing conditions

Wolfram Schlenker, William Hanemann, Anthony C. Fisher

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

183 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We link farmland values to climatic, soil, and socioeconomic variables for U.S. counties east of the 100th meridian, the historical boundary of agriculture not primarily dependent on irrigation. Degree days, a nonlinear transformation of the climatic variables suggested by agronomic experiments as more relevant to crop yield, gives an improved fit and increased robustness. Estimated coefficients are consistent with the experimental results. The model is employed to estimate the potential impacts on farmland values for a range of recent warming scenarios. The predictions are very robust, and more than 75% of the counties in our sample show a statistically significant effect, ranging from moderate gains to large losses, with losses in the aggregate that can become quite large under scenarios involving sustained heavy use of fossil fuels.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)113-125
Number of pages13
JournalReview of Economics and Statistics
Volume88
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 2006
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

econometrics
agriculture
scenario
irrigation
Values
experiment
Econometric analysis
Agriculture
Farmland value
Scenarios
Global warming
Fossil fuels
Socio-economics
Prediction
Experiment
Crop yield
Irrigation
Nonlinear transformation
Robustness
Soil

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Social Sciences (miscellaneous)

Cite this

The impact of global warming on U.S. agriculture : An econometric analysis of optimal growing conditions. / Schlenker, Wolfram; Hanemann, William; Fisher, Anthony C.

In: Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 88, No. 1, 02.2006, p. 113-125.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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