The Impact of COVID-19 on World Oil Producers: Time is Important

The COVID-19 crisis had a significant impact on world oil producers. Within a welfare economic framework, Schmitz, A., C. B. Moss, and T. G. Schmitz. 2020. "The Economic Effects of COVID-19 on the Producers of Ethanol, Corn, Gasoline, and Oil."Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization 18 (2): 1-18, estimated that the minimum cost of COVID-19 in 2020 to world oil producers was roughly US$ 1 trillion. They used actual oil production data for January 1st, 2020, through June 30th, 2020, and forecast world oil production and prices from July 1st to December 31st, 2020. This paper extends the 2020 analysis using actual production and price data for 2020 and 2021 to calculate the change in producer economic rents during the COVID-19 pandemic for global oil producers (U.S., Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the Rest of the World). Despite losses in 2020 to world oil producers due to the COVID-19 pandemic, world oil producers saw significant gains in 2021, which more than offset losses in 2020. At a minimum, world oil producers realized a net gain of $US 829 billion over the two periods.