The hydrologic model as a source of nutrient loading uncertainty in a future climate

Haley Kujawa, Margaret Kalcic, Jay Martin, Noel Aloysius, Anna Apostel, Jeffrey Kast, Asmita Murumkar, Grey Evenson, Richard Becker, Chelsie Boles, Remegio Confesor, Awoke Dagnew, Tian Guo, Rebecca Logsdon Muenich, Todd Redder, Donald Scavia, Yu Chen Wang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

14 Scopus citations

Abstract

Hydrologic models are applied increasingly with climate projections to provide insights into future hydrologic conditions. However, both hydrologic models and climate models can produce a wide range of predictions based on model inputs, assumptions, and structure. To characterize a range of future predictions, it is common to use multiple climate models to drive hydrologic models, yet it is less common to also use a suite of hydrologic models. It is also common for hydrologic models to report riverine discharge and assume that nutrient loading will follow similar patterns, but this may not be the case. In this study, we characterized uncertainty from both climate models and hydrologic models in predicting riverine discharge and nutrient loading. Six climate models drawn from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble were used to drive five independently developed and calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool models to assess hydrology and nutrient loadings for mid-century (2046–2065) in the Maumee River Watershed,the largest watershedsdraining to the Laurentian Great Lakes. Under those conditions, there was no clear agreement on the direction of change in future nutrient loadings or discharge. Analysis of variance demonstrated that variation among climate models was the dominant source of uncertainty in predicting future total discharge, tile discharge (i.e. subsurface drainage), evapotranspiration, and total nitrogen loading, while hydrologic models were the main source of uncertainty in predicted surface runoff and phosphorus loadings. This innovative study quantifies the importance of hydrologic model in the prediction of riverine nutrient loadings under a future climate.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number138004
JournalScience of the Total Environment
Volume724
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 1 2020

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Hydrology
  • Nutrients
  • Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
  • Uncertainty

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Engineering
  • Environmental Chemistry
  • Waste Management and Disposal
  • Pollution

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