The future of vascular plant diversity under four global scenarios

Detlef P. van Vuuren, Osvaldo Sala, Henrique M. Pereira

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

84 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Biodiversity is of crucial importance for ecosystem functioning and human well-being. Using quantitative projections of changes in land use and climate from the four Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) scenarios, we project that reduction of habitat by year 2050 will result in a loss of global vascular plant diversity ranging from 7-24% relative to 1995, after populations have reached equilibrium with the reduced habitat. This range includes both the impact of different scenarios and uncertainty in the SAR relationship. Biomes projected to lose the most species are warm mixed forest, savannahs, shrub, tropical forest, and tropical woodlands. In the 2000-2050 period, land-use change contributes more on a global scale to species diversity loss than does climate change, 7-13% vs. 2-4% loss at equilibrium for different scenarios, respectively. However, after 2050, climate change will become increasingly important.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number25
JournalEcology and Society
Volume11
Issue number2
StatePublished - Dec 2006
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

vascular plant
climate change
ecosystem
habitat
mixed forest
biome
tropical forest
land use change
woodland
species diversity
synthetic aperture radar
shrub
biodiversity
land use
climate
loss

Keywords

  • Biodiversity
  • Global environmental change
  • Millennium ecosystem assessment
  • Scenarios

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Nature and Landscape Conservation

Cite this

The future of vascular plant diversity under four global scenarios. / van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Sala, Osvaldo; Pereira, Henrique M.

In: Ecology and Society, Vol. 11, No. 2, 25, 12.2006.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

van Vuuren, Detlef P. ; Sala, Osvaldo ; Pereira, Henrique M. / The future of vascular plant diversity under four global scenarios. In: Ecology and Society. 2006 ; Vol. 11, No. 2.
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