TY - JOUR
T1 - The evolution of the IPCC's emissions scenarios
AU - Girod, Bastien
AU - Wiek, Arnim
AU - Mieg, Harald
AU - Hulme, Mike
N1 - Funding Information:
Bastien Girod holds a Master's degree in environmental sciences from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH Zurich), Switzerland and is currently pursuing his PhD study at the same institution on a project dealing with carbon emission and rebound effects of households, funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation. Since 2007, Bastien Girod is member of the Swiss National Parliament.
Funding Information:
The authors would like to thank all scenario experts for their contributions to the expert interviews. We also would like to thank Rob Swart (EEA European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change, Bilthoven, The Netherlands), Bert de Vries (Utrecht University, The Netherlands), John Robinson (University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada), and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments on previous versions of this article, as well as Sandro Bösch (ETH Zurich) for graphic design and Heather Murray for editorial support. Arnim Wiek acknowledges the support of the Swiss NSF grant PA0011-115315.
PY - 2009/4
Y1 - 2009/4
N2 - The IPCC's emissions scenarios form the basis for the majority of long-term climate change projections, including those of the current Fourth Assessment Report. The main characteristics of the IPCC's three scenario series - published in 1990, 1992 and 2000 - have changed significantly over time: titles, classification, assumptions and methods have all changed. This article analyses the evolution of the structure, description, process development and context of the IPCC's emissions scenarios, identifying the most important changes and their scientific and political causes. These changes are evaluated against the criteria of saliency, credibility and legitimacy. Our analysis indicates, first, enhanced credibility through an improved scenario construction methodology (multiple baseline scenarios; storylines), even though these achievements are diluted by particularities of the scenario approach used. Second, a reduced saliency through absence of titles, an inappropriate classification and the relatively high number of baseline scenarios, limits and weakens their wider applicability. These latter trends were due in part to concessions made to the intergovernmental nature of the construction process (trade-offs). The article concludes by proposing for the future the employment of a more formal qualitative construction approach as well as revisions to scenario labelling and classification practices.
AB - The IPCC's emissions scenarios form the basis for the majority of long-term climate change projections, including those of the current Fourth Assessment Report. The main characteristics of the IPCC's three scenario series - published in 1990, 1992 and 2000 - have changed significantly over time: titles, classification, assumptions and methods have all changed. This article analyses the evolution of the structure, description, process development and context of the IPCC's emissions scenarios, identifying the most important changes and their scientific and political causes. These changes are evaluated against the criteria of saliency, credibility and legitimacy. Our analysis indicates, first, enhanced credibility through an improved scenario construction methodology (multiple baseline scenarios; storylines), even though these achievements are diluted by particularities of the scenario approach used. Second, a reduced saliency through absence of titles, an inappropriate classification and the relatively high number of baseline scenarios, limits and weakens their wider applicability. These latter trends were due in part to concessions made to the intergovernmental nature of the construction process (trade-offs). The article concludes by proposing for the future the employment of a more formal qualitative construction approach as well as revisions to scenario labelling and classification practices.
KW - Climate change
KW - Emissions scenarios
KW - Evaluation
KW - IPCC
KW - SRES
KW - Science-policy interface
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U2 - 10.1016/j.envsci.2008.12.006
DO - 10.1016/j.envsci.2008.12.006
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:60849112296
SN - 1462-9011
VL - 12
SP - 103
EP - 118
JO - Environmental Science and Policy
JF - Environmental Science and Policy
IS - 2
ER -