Abstract

Rotavirus, the most common cause of gastroenteritis among children worldwide, is responsible for approximately 600,000 deaths every year worldwide. Clinical trials of RotaTeq and Rotarix, two commercially generated approved vaccines, have shown a high degree of effectiveness in protecting the most vulnerable individuals against rotavirus infections. RotaTeq and Rotarix are now incorporated into the portfolio of vaccines recommended for regular use by infants in the US and Mexico, respectively. The focus here is to evaluate the impact of vaccine-generated herd immunity, a function of the implementation regimes and coverage policies, on rotavirus transmission dynamics at the population level. In order to evaluate the overall impact of vaccine regimes in the US and Mexico, we develop an age-structured epidemiological model of rotavirus transmission that includes age-specific vaccination rates. This model is parameterized using available epidemiological and vaccine data. Numerical simulations of the parameterized model support the conclusion that reasonable rotavirus vaccination programs can prevent a significant fraction of primary (severe) rotavirus infections in the US and Mexico. Vaccination is likely to have stronger positive impact in Mexico than in the US, because the prevalence of rotavirus infections is higher in Mexico and demographics are distinct in two countries. It is shown that the age distribution of rotavirus cases will shift as a result of vaccination. This shift will be accompanied with decreases in the proportion of primary infections and the change in the distribution of subsequent infections. Effective vaccination regimes tend to increase the average age of both primary and subsequent infections. The observed shifts reduce the average population risk because severity tends to decrease with age.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationMathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology
PublisherSpringer Netherlands
Pages303-323
Number of pages21
ISBN (Print)9789048123124
DOIs
StatePublished - 2009

Fingerprint

Vaccination
Vaccine
Infection
Tend
Age-structured Model
Epidemiological Model
Decrease
Evaluate
Immunity
Clinical Trials
Coverage
Proportion
Likely
Distinct
Numerical Simulation
Model

Keywords

  • Age-structured model
  • Rotarix
  • RotaTeq
  • Rotavirus
  • Vaccination

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Mathematics(all)

Cite this

Shim, E., & Castillo-Chavez, C. (2009). The epidemiological impact of rotavirus vaccination programs in the United States and Mexico. In Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology (pp. 303-323). Springer Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2313-1_12

The epidemiological impact of rotavirus vaccination programs in the United States and Mexico. / Shim, Eunha; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos.

Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology. Springer Netherlands, 2009. p. 303-323.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Shim, E & Castillo-Chavez, C 2009, The epidemiological impact of rotavirus vaccination programs in the United States and Mexico. in Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology. Springer Netherlands, pp. 303-323. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2313-1_12
Shim E, Castillo-Chavez C. The epidemiological impact of rotavirus vaccination programs in the United States and Mexico. In Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology. Springer Netherlands. 2009. p. 303-323 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2313-1_12
Shim, Eunha ; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos. / The epidemiological impact of rotavirus vaccination programs in the United States and Mexico. Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology. Springer Netherlands, 2009. pp. 303-323
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