The Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources of Small Developing Countries A Case Study of the Republic of Macedonia

In absence of high-resolution climate-change model predictions, employing empirical data collected over a long period may be the only viable option to predict the climate change implications affecting small and developing countries where the socio-economic structure is strongly rooted in water dependent sectors such as agriculture or energy production. The overarching goal of this study is to demonstrate the suitability and significance of employing empirically obtained historical data in predicting the impact of future global climate change trends in a small country like the Republic of Macedonia. The climate change effects on the national surface water resources of Macedonia were assessed by (1) examining temperature trends and other descriptors of global warming spanning over 50 years; and (2) testing three data-driven hypotheses. The 50-year historical records describe statistically significant trends: increase in national average temperatures, surface water resources depletion, and fluctuations in the magnitude of precipitation. Realizations of such grim scenarios could create substantial socio-economic and environmental challenges for the Republic of Macedonia if adequate mitigative measures are not implemented.