The effective reproduction number as a prelude to statistical estimation of time-dependent epidemic trends

Hiroshi Nishiura, Gerardo Chowell

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

33 Scopus citations

Abstract

Although the basic reproduction number, R 0, is useful for understanding the transmissibility of a disease and designing various intervention strategies, the classic threshold quantity theoretically assumes that the epidemic first occurs in a fully susceptible population, and hence, R 0 is essentially a mathematically defined quantity. In many instances, it is of practical importance to evaluate time-dependent variations in the transmission potential of infectious diseases. Explanation of the time course of an epidemic can be partly achieved by estimating the effective reproduction number, R(t), defined as the actual average number of secondary cases per primary case at calendar time t (for t >0). R(t) shows time-dependent variation due to the decline in susceptible individuals (intrinsic factors) and the implementation of control measures (extrinsic factors). If R(t)<1, it suggests that the epidemic is in decline and may be regarded as being under control at time t (vice versa, if R(t)>1). This chapter describes the primer of mathematics and statistics of R(t) and discusses other similar markers of transmissibility as a function of time.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationMathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology
PublisherSpringer Netherlands
Pages103-121
Number of pages19
ISBN (Print)9789048123124
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2009

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ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Mathematics(all)

Cite this

Nishiura, H., & Chowell, G. (2009). The effective reproduction number as a prelude to statistical estimation of time-dependent epidemic trends. In Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology (pp. 103-121). Springer Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2313-1_5