The effect of temperature on Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and the potential for malaria transmission

Lindsay M. Beck-Johnson, William A. Nelson, Krijn Paaijmans, Andrew F. Read, Matthew B. Thomas, Ottar N. Bjørnstad

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

102 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The parasites that cause malaria depend on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; because of this, mosquito population dynamics are a key determinant of malaria risk. Development and survival rates of both the Anopheles mosquitoes and the Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria depend on temperature, making this a potential driver of mosquito population dynamics and malaria transmission. We developed a temperature-dependent, stage-structured delayed differential equation model to better understand how climate determines risk. Including the full mosquito life cycle in the model reveals that the mosquito population abundance is more sensitive to temperature than previously thought because it is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the juvenile mosquito stages whose vital rates are also temperature-dependent. Additionally, the model predicts a peak in abundance of mosquitoes old enough to vector malaria at more accurate temperatures than previous models. Our results point to the importance of incorporating detailed vector biology into models for predicting the risk for vector borne diseases.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere79276
JournalPLoS One
Volume8
Issue number11
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 14 2013
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Population dynamics
Anopheles
Population Dynamics
Culicidae
malaria
Malaria
population dynamics
Temperature
temperature
Parasites
Life cycle
Disease Vectors
parasites
vector-borne diseases
Differential equations
Plasmodium
Life Cycle Stages
Climate
life cycle (organisms)
Survival Rate

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

The effect of temperature on Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and the potential for malaria transmission. / Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M.; Nelson, William A.; Paaijmans, Krijn; Read, Andrew F.; Thomas, Matthew B.; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.

In: PLoS One, Vol. 8, No. 11, e79276, 14.11.2013.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M. ; Nelson, William A. ; Paaijmans, Krijn ; Read, Andrew F. ; Thomas, Matthew B. ; Bjørnstad, Ottar N. / The effect of temperature on Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and the potential for malaria transmission. In: PLoS One. 2013 ; Vol. 8, No. 11.
@article{bbd67a4d1ea049f0ac77d53930e3fc07,
title = "The effect of temperature on Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and the potential for malaria transmission",
abstract = "The parasites that cause malaria depend on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; because of this, mosquito population dynamics are a key determinant of malaria risk. Development and survival rates of both the Anopheles mosquitoes and the Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria depend on temperature, making this a potential driver of mosquito population dynamics and malaria transmission. We developed a temperature-dependent, stage-structured delayed differential equation model to better understand how climate determines risk. Including the full mosquito life cycle in the model reveals that the mosquito population abundance is more sensitive to temperature than previously thought because it is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the juvenile mosquito stages whose vital rates are also temperature-dependent. Additionally, the model predicts a peak in abundance of mosquitoes old enough to vector malaria at more accurate temperatures than previous models. Our results point to the importance of incorporating detailed vector biology into models for predicting the risk for vector borne diseases.",
author = "Beck-Johnson, {Lindsay M.} and Nelson, {William A.} and Krijn Paaijmans and Read, {Andrew F.} and Thomas, {Matthew B.} and Bj{\o}rnstad, {Ottar N.}",
year = "2013",
month = "11",
day = "14",
doi = "10.1371/journal.pone.0079276",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "8",
journal = "PLoS One",
issn = "1932-6203",
publisher = "Public Library of Science",
number = "11",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - The effect of temperature on Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and the potential for malaria transmission

AU - Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M.

AU - Nelson, William A.

AU - Paaijmans, Krijn

AU - Read, Andrew F.

AU - Thomas, Matthew B.

AU - Bjørnstad, Ottar N.

PY - 2013/11/14

Y1 - 2013/11/14

N2 - The parasites that cause malaria depend on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; because of this, mosquito population dynamics are a key determinant of malaria risk. Development and survival rates of both the Anopheles mosquitoes and the Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria depend on temperature, making this a potential driver of mosquito population dynamics and malaria transmission. We developed a temperature-dependent, stage-structured delayed differential equation model to better understand how climate determines risk. Including the full mosquito life cycle in the model reveals that the mosquito population abundance is more sensitive to temperature than previously thought because it is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the juvenile mosquito stages whose vital rates are also temperature-dependent. Additionally, the model predicts a peak in abundance of mosquitoes old enough to vector malaria at more accurate temperatures than previous models. Our results point to the importance of incorporating detailed vector biology into models for predicting the risk for vector borne diseases.

AB - The parasites that cause malaria depend on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; because of this, mosquito population dynamics are a key determinant of malaria risk. Development and survival rates of both the Anopheles mosquitoes and the Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria depend on temperature, making this a potential driver of mosquito population dynamics and malaria transmission. We developed a temperature-dependent, stage-structured delayed differential equation model to better understand how climate determines risk. Including the full mosquito life cycle in the model reveals that the mosquito population abundance is more sensitive to temperature than previously thought because it is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the juvenile mosquito stages whose vital rates are also temperature-dependent. Additionally, the model predicts a peak in abundance of mosquitoes old enough to vector malaria at more accurate temperatures than previous models. Our results point to the importance of incorporating detailed vector biology into models for predicting the risk for vector borne diseases.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84893671214&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84893671214&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1371/journal.pone.0079276

DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0079276

M3 - Article

C2 - 24244467

AN - SCOPUS:84893671214

VL - 8

JO - PLoS One

JF - PLoS One

SN - 1932-6203

IS - 11

M1 - e79276

ER -