TY - JOUR
T1 - The co-production of sustainable future scenarios
AU - Iwaniec, David M.
AU - Cook, Elizabeth M.
AU - Davidson, Melissa J.
AU - Berbés-Blázquez, Marta
AU - Georgescu, Matei
AU - Krayenhoff, E. Scott
AU - Middel, Ariane
AU - Sampson, David A.
AU - Grimm, Nancy B.
N1 - Funding Information:
This research was funded by United States National Science Foundation grant numbers DEB-1637590 (Central Arizona-Phoenix Long-Term Ecological Research Program), SES-1444755 (Urban Resilience to Extremes Sustainability Research Network), GCR-1934933 (SETS Convergence) and Chilean CONICYT-FONDECYT grant number 3150290 (Science, Technology, Knowledge and Innovation Ministry of Chile). We are grateful for the help from Xiaoxiao Li for land use land cover modeling and of our skilled facilitators: Robert Hobbins, Genevieve Metson, Monica Palta, Jorge Ramos, Chris Sanchez, and Nicholas Weller. Image credits: Arizona State University School of Life Science VisLab (Jacob Sahertian and Selina Martinez) and Brandon Ramirez for the SketchUp design vignette renderings and to Matt Boylan for microclimate vignette drawings.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Authors
PY - 2020/5
Y1 - 2020/5
N2 - Scenarios are a tool to develop plausible, coherent visions about the future and to foster anticipatory knowledge. We present the Sustainable Future Scenarios (SFS) framework and demonstrate its application through the Central Arizona-Phoenix Long-term Ecological Research (CAP LTER) urban site. The SFS approach emphasizes the co-development of positive and long-term alternative future visions. Through a collaboration of practitioner and academic stakeholders, this research integrates participatory scenario development, modeling, and qualitative scenario assessments. The SFS engagement process creates space to question the limits of what is normally considered possible, desirable, or inevitable in the face of future challenges. Comparative analyses among the future scenarios demonstrate trade-offs among regional and microscale temperature, water use, land-use change, and co-developed resilience and sustainability indices. SFS incorporate diverse perspectives in co-producing positive future visions, thereby expanding traditional future projections. The iterative, interactive process also creates opportunities to bridge science and policy by building anticipatory and systems-based decision-making and research capacity for long-term sustainability planning.
AB - Scenarios are a tool to develop plausible, coherent visions about the future and to foster anticipatory knowledge. We present the Sustainable Future Scenarios (SFS) framework and demonstrate its application through the Central Arizona-Phoenix Long-term Ecological Research (CAP LTER) urban site. The SFS approach emphasizes the co-development of positive and long-term alternative future visions. Through a collaboration of practitioner and academic stakeholders, this research integrates participatory scenario development, modeling, and qualitative scenario assessments. The SFS engagement process creates space to question the limits of what is normally considered possible, desirable, or inevitable in the face of future challenges. Comparative analyses among the future scenarios demonstrate trade-offs among regional and microscale temperature, water use, land-use change, and co-developed resilience and sustainability indices. SFS incorporate diverse perspectives in co-producing positive future visions, thereby expanding traditional future projections. The iterative, interactive process also creates opportunities to bridge science and policy by building anticipatory and systems-based decision-making and research capacity for long-term sustainability planning.
KW - Co-production
KW - Positive futures
KW - Resilience
KW - Scenario development
KW - Sustainability transformations
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U2 - 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2020.103744
DO - 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2020.103744
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85078767554
VL - 197
JO - Landscape Planning
JF - Landscape Planning
SN - 0169-2046
M1 - 103744
ER -