The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: The cases of Congo and Uganda

G. Chowell, N. W. Hengartner, C. Castillo-Chavez, P. W. Fenimore, J. M. Hyman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

332 Scopus citations

Abstract

Despite improved control measures, Ebola remains a serious public health risk in African regions where recurrent outbreaks have been observed since the initial epidemic in 1976. Using epidemic modeling and data from two well-documented Ebola outbreaks (Congo 1995 and Uganda 2000), we estimate the number of secondary cases generated by an index case in the absence of control interventions (R0). Our estimate of R0 is 1.83 (SD 0.06) for Congo (1995) and 1.34 (SD 0.03) for Uganda (2000). We model the course of the outbreaks via an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) epidemic model that includes a smooth transition in the transmission rate after control interventions are put in place. We perform an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproductive number R0 to quantify its sensitivity to other disease-related parameters. We also analyse the sensitivity of the final epidemic size to the time interventions begin and provide a distribution for the final epidemic size. The control measures implemented during these two outbreaks (including education and contact tracing followed by quarantine) reduce the final epidemic size by a factor of 2 relative the final size with a 2-week delay in their implementation.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)119-126
Number of pages8
JournalJournal of Theoretical Biology
Volume229
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 7 2004

Keywords

  • Congo
  • Ebola
  • Interventions
  • Outbreak
  • Reproductive number
  • Uganda

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Applied Mathematics

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