The application of an age-structured model with unbounded mortality to demography

Oscar Angulo, Juan Carlos López-Marcos, Fabio Augusto Milner

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

We carry out a simulation of the female population of the USA using the non-autonomous Lotka-McKendrick model with finite maximum age and recent demographic data. The most important contributions in our study are the identification of the mortality rate (including the maximum age) and the design and analysis of a numerical method that works efficiently with unbounded mortality rates. We also consider the effect in the population projections produced by different ways to choose the vital rates and we present a sensitivity analysis with respect to the mortality. Finally, we exemplify the limitations the data impose on the quality of the projections of this model through a 10-year simulation for the USA from 1990 to 2000 and we project the female population of the USA in 2010 using this model.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)495-520
Number of pages26
JournalMathematical Biosciences
Volume208
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 1 2007
Externally publishedYes

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Keywords

  • Demography
  • Maximal age
  • Numerical methods
  • Simulation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Applied Mathematics

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