The application of an age-structured model with unbounded mortality to demography

Oscar Angulo, Juan Carlos López-Marcos, Fabio Milner

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We carry out a simulation of the female population of the USA using the non-autonomous Lotka-McKendrick model with finite maximum age and recent demographic data. The most important contributions in our study are the identification of the mortality rate (including the maximum age) and the design and analysis of a numerical method that works efficiently with unbounded mortality rates. We also consider the effect in the population projections produced by different ways to choose the vital rates and we present a sensitivity analysis with respect to the mortality. Finally, we exemplify the limitations the data impose on the quality of the projections of this model through a 10-year simulation for the USA from 1990 to 2000 and we project the female population of the USA in 2010 using this model.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)495-520
Number of pages26
JournalMathematical Biosciences
Volume208
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 2007
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Demography
Age-structured Model
demography
Mortality
Mortality Rate
mortality
Projection
numerical method
Population
Sensitivity analysis
simulation
Sensitivity Analysis
sensitivity analysis
Numerical methods
Simulation
demographic statistics
Choose
Numerical Methods
Model
methodology

Keywords

  • Demography
  • Maximal age
  • Numerical methods
  • Simulation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

Cite this

The application of an age-structured model with unbounded mortality to demography. / Angulo, Oscar; López-Marcos, Juan Carlos; Milner, Fabio.

In: Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 208, No. 2, 08.2007, p. 495-520.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Angulo, Oscar ; López-Marcos, Juan Carlos ; Milner, Fabio. / The application of an age-structured model with unbounded mortality to demography. In: Mathematical Biosciences. 2007 ; Vol. 208, No. 2. pp. 495-520.
@article{bd42054a0d334d54abae58e92c561ff7,
title = "The application of an age-structured model with unbounded mortality to demography",
abstract = "We carry out a simulation of the female population of the USA using the non-autonomous Lotka-McKendrick model with finite maximum age and recent demographic data. The most important contributions in our study are the identification of the mortality rate (including the maximum age) and the design and analysis of a numerical method that works efficiently with unbounded mortality rates. We also consider the effect in the population projections produced by different ways to choose the vital rates and we present a sensitivity analysis with respect to the mortality. Finally, we exemplify the limitations the data impose on the quality of the projections of this model through a 10-year simulation for the USA from 1990 to 2000 and we project the female population of the USA in 2010 using this model.",
keywords = "Demography, Maximal age, Numerical methods, Simulation",
author = "Oscar Angulo and L{\'o}pez-Marcos, {Juan Carlos} and Fabio Milner",
year = "2007",
month = "8",
doi = "10.1016/j.mbs.2006.11.001",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "208",
pages = "495--520",
journal = "Mathematical Biosciences",
issn = "0025-5564",
publisher = "Elsevier Inc.",
number = "2",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - The application of an age-structured model with unbounded mortality to demography

AU - Angulo, Oscar

AU - López-Marcos, Juan Carlos

AU - Milner, Fabio

PY - 2007/8

Y1 - 2007/8

N2 - We carry out a simulation of the female population of the USA using the non-autonomous Lotka-McKendrick model with finite maximum age and recent demographic data. The most important contributions in our study are the identification of the mortality rate (including the maximum age) and the design and analysis of a numerical method that works efficiently with unbounded mortality rates. We also consider the effect in the population projections produced by different ways to choose the vital rates and we present a sensitivity analysis with respect to the mortality. Finally, we exemplify the limitations the data impose on the quality of the projections of this model through a 10-year simulation for the USA from 1990 to 2000 and we project the female population of the USA in 2010 using this model.

AB - We carry out a simulation of the female population of the USA using the non-autonomous Lotka-McKendrick model with finite maximum age and recent demographic data. The most important contributions in our study are the identification of the mortality rate (including the maximum age) and the design and analysis of a numerical method that works efficiently with unbounded mortality rates. We also consider the effect in the population projections produced by different ways to choose the vital rates and we present a sensitivity analysis with respect to the mortality. Finally, we exemplify the limitations the data impose on the quality of the projections of this model through a 10-year simulation for the USA from 1990 to 2000 and we project the female population of the USA in 2010 using this model.

KW - Demography

KW - Maximal age

KW - Numerical methods

KW - Simulation

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=34547094144&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=34547094144&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.mbs.2006.11.001

DO - 10.1016/j.mbs.2006.11.001

M3 - Article

C2 - 17306839

AN - SCOPUS:34547094144

VL - 208

SP - 495

EP - 520

JO - Mathematical Biosciences

JF - Mathematical Biosciences

SN - 0025-5564

IS - 2

ER -